Re: WIPP shipment through Albq. NM

[John Jacobus <crispy_bird@YAHOO.COM>]

Richard,

Appreciate your comments.  I would add that you cannot

say what the individual's risk is.  The risk of 0.05%

per rem is based on a population.  You could also say

that if the risk is 25.15%, the odds of not getting

cancer at 74.85%.  That always confuses people.



I feel the comment about high background radiation

environments is not germain to the interest of the

people I am responding to.  It may sound silly, but

"medical exposures are different from background."



--- "Richard L. Hess" <richard@richardhess.com> wrote:

> Hi, John,

> 

> I've been following this discussion with interest

> and I must say that I would 

> feel much better if I were told the following. I

> believe this better presents 

> all the facts as we know it than just using NCRP

> 116.

> 

> "The conservative, worst-case assessment of risk for

> these CT scans, based on 

> NCRP 116 is that your risk of dying from cancer will

> increase from 25% to 

> 25.15% (or whatever based on number of REMs (3?)

> received), however there is 

> also evidence that the projections contained in NCRP

> 116 overstate the risk of 

> increased cancer. 

> 

> "Studies of people who live in areas with higher

> background radiation (incluing 

> Denver and the mountain regions above Denver) do not

> seem to support the 

> extrapolation embodied in NCRP 116, and some

> researchers suggest that low-level 

> radiation might actually be beneficial. 

> 

> "Therefore, based on the conservative

> government-required calculation, your 

> worst-case risk is the increase from 25% to 25.15%.

> However, since this 

> calculation is based on assumptions that are

> extremely conservative, this 

> increase is an upper limit, a regulatory

> convenience. 

> 

> "Informed professionals disagree on what the level

> of risk is, but all agree 

> that it is not worse than this number. Some think

> that the amount of radiation 

> you have received could even be beneficial."

> 

> I think this kind of education is important and what

> Barbara and Ruth are 

> talking about.

> 

> Cheers,

> 

> . . .



=====

+++++++++++++++++++

"I have sworn upon the altar of God, eternal hostility against every form of tyranny over the mind of man."

Thomas Jefferson



-- John

John Jacobus, MS

Certified Health Physicist

e-mail:  crispy_bird@yahoo.com



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