More on the future of the space program

[John Jacobus <crispy_bird@YAHOO.COM>]

FYI

The American Institute of Physics Bulletin of Science

Policy News

Number 8: January 30, 2004



Space Policy Experts Discuss Goals for Human

Spaceflight Program



It is not only the Bush Administration that has

wrestled with the question of where the nation's human

spaceflight program should be headed.  Congress has

held hearings on this question, and several months

prior to President Bush's proposal to return to the

Moon and then send humans to Mars, a group of experts

in space policy held a workshop to air their views. 

Although the workshop was not intended to develop

consensus recommendations, there were a number of

comments that received broad agreement: Since the end

of the Apollo program and the Cold War, the role of

the U.S. human spaceflight program has been uncertain;

the program needs a clear long-term goal developed by

a national dialogue, with a progression of smaller

missions leading toward that goal; it needs to use

NASA's space and Earth science programs as successful

models and must move beyond competition between human

and robotic exploration by taking advantage of the

benefits of both; sending humans to Mars is a likely

long-term goal; and fundamental changes will be

required on NASA's part to achieve such a goal.



The November 12-13 workshop was held jointly by the

National Research Council's Space Studies Board and

its Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board, with

other invited guests.  A prepublication version of a

report on the workshop, "Issues and Opportunities

Regarding the U.S. Space Program," breaks out seven

themes around which there seemed to be general

agreement among participants:



THEME 1.  Successful Space and Earth Science Programs:

According to the report, the U.S. space and Earth

science programs are generally considered productive

and successful, and benefit from the "constructive

tension" between NASA, which implements the program,

and independent stakeholders - members of the science

community - who set and periodically revisit the

program's goals.  Numerous independent missions of

varying sizes enable the programs' continued progress,

momentum, and political support.  Many workshop

participants felt that the human spaceflight program

could benefit by applying "lessons learned" from

NASA's science programs.  In particular, it was noted

that the human spaceflight program lacks independent

stakeholders.



THEME 2.  A Clear Goal for Human Spaceflight: There

was consensus among workshop participants that the

human spaceflight program lacks - and needs - a clear

long-term goal.  "Without such a long-range goal," the

report states, "the human spaceflight program's reason

for being is hard to articulate," as is the

justification for components such as the space station

and shuttle.  The suggestion was made that, with the

end of the Cold War, there is no longer a need to

demonstrate U.S. technical prowess in space, but a

long-term human spaceflight goal could help the U. S.

demonstrate leadership and goodwill in cooperation

with other nations.  It was thought that the goal

would be determined through a national and

international dialogue.



THEME 3.  Exploration as the Goal for Human

paceflight: Many participants believed that the

primary goal of the human spaceflight program should

be exploration, in order to satisfy a basic human

drive and to contribute to the acquisition of new

knowledge. "Exploration is a legitimate form of

science, if properly conducted," one of the

participants stated.  Others commented that human

explorers can take advantage of "unanticipated

learning" opportunities for learning in a way that

robots cannot, and humans can communicate to others

what it is like to experience outer space.  Some

participants felt that human exploration of Mars was

an appropriate long-term goal.



THEME 4.  Exploration as a Long-term Endeavor to be

Accomplished via a Series of Small Steps:  Some

participants argued that it would be premature to

specify a date and the cost of a long-term human

spaceflight goal, and that the nation should pursue

the larger goal through a series of smaller missions

as NASA's budget allowed, in a "buy it by the yard"

approach.  This approach could help sustain momentum

and political support, and would allow many

opportunities for the involvement of international

partners.



THEME 5.  Synergy Superseding the Humans-versus-Robots

Dichotomy: Numerous participants called for moving

beyond the view that human and robotic missions must

compete for funding, and instead crafting a human

spaceflight program that exploited the synergies of

using both.  Many agreed that, if long-term human

space exploration is the goal, the benefits of both

will be needed, and the mix of the two will depend on

the ultimate goal chosen.



THEME 6.  The Long-term Goal Driving All

Implementation Decisions: Warning against repeating

the mistake of the shuttle and space station programs

in making "too many promises to too many people,"

workshop participants stated that the chosen long-term

goal should drive all related decisions.  For example,

the goal of achieving long-term human exploration, it

was noted, could provide "a very clear justification"

for the configuration of, and research aboard, the

space station, and the design of the next space 

transportation system.



THEME 7.  Institutional Concerns: A successful human

spaceflight program, it was felt, would require

significant changes in NASA. Workshop participants

cited a number of concerns with the current situation,

including the lack of independent stakeholders for a

human spaceflight goal, the decline of the U.S. space

industrial base, changes to NASA's mission since the

Apollo program, a lack of management competence

exemplified by repetition of the same mistakes, a lack

of technical competence reflected in NASA's use of old

technologies for the human spaceflight program, and a

lack of openness and honesty in NASA's justification

of many of its programs.  Some also felt that the

human spaceflight program would have a better chance

of success if the broad science community expressed

support for it and contributed to making it an

effective and productive program.



The report on the workshop, "Issues and Opportunities

Regarding the U.S. Space Program," which runs nearly

100 pages with appendices, can be requested in pdf

format from the Space Studies Board at ssb@nas.edu.



Some of the suggestions raised at the workshop appear

in line with Bush's proposal for human spaceflight

(see FYI #7), but how many will be incorporated into

NASA's future plans remains to be seen. Two days ago,

at a Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation

Committee hearing, senators expressed interest in the

President's plan for the Moon and Mars, but were

skeptical about the potential cost. More details on

the Moon/Mars proposal will be revealed when the FY

2005 budget request is released next week.



###############

Audrey T. Leath

Media and Government Relations Division

The American Institute of Physics

fyi@aip.org  www.aip.org/gov

(301) 209-3094

##END##########







=====

+++++++++++++++++++

"I have sworn upon the altar of God, eternal hostility against every form of tyranny over the mind of man."

Thomas Jefferson



-- John

John Jacobus, MS

Certified Health Physicist

e-mail:  crispy_bird@yahoo.com



__________________________________

Do you Yahoo!?

Yahoo! SiteBuilder - Free web site building tool. Try it!

http://webhosting.yahoo.com/ps/sb/

************************************************************************

You are currently subscribed to the Radsafe mailing list. To

unsubscribe, send an e-mail to Majordomo@list.vanderbilt.edu  Put the

text "unsubscribe radsafe" (no quote marks) in the body of the e-mail,

with no subject line. You can view the Radsafe archives at

http://www.vanderbilt.edu/radsafe/