Re: Al-Qaida may have nuclear weapons

["Gerry Blackwood" <gpblackwood@justice.com>]

Frank,



"The only difference is the order of magnitude"



This is the exact point in which I make on the issue of WMDs.

With regard to BW. Your points are very well taken. However, and

here we get into the debate of "testing". It is my opinion that

we have a wealth of knowledge and experience with nuclear weapons

that in the hands of educated and knowledgeable physicst(s) a low

yield shot-gun type weapon can be produced and detonated with

reasonable assurance that detonation will be complete without

testing. Hence AQ's drive to either steal one or build a low yield

nuclear devise, a thermonuclear device is much more complex and

outside the technical know how and resources of AQ, while low

yield is not. 



However, and again while, BW and or some bio agents have the

capability to replicate, again weaponizing or hardening these

agents such as Ebola or hemorrhagic fever Ebola HF (a really

nasty virus of which I got a first hand view of in 1989 in what

is now known as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, formerly

Zaire, you really can't imagine what Ebola-Zaire does to a human

being....just horrible) is not that easy and very complex. 



The problem is weaponizing or hardening the virus as a BW agent

and then delivering and dispersing the agent as a weapon of mass

destruction. Meaning a "one shot weapon" that impacts mass

casualties like a nuke. Remember "testing" a weapon of this

nature really has never been done so no one is really for sure

how a BW will respond. CW? We have plenty of experience with.

Once again BWs are not that easy yet to be used as a nuke can and

again subject to many environmental conditions. Though like I

said, BW should not be underestimated at all and shortly the

major super powers will have BWs down to a science. Hence the

push to get an instrumentation of enforcement on the BWC. We have

signed it but it is not enforced as of yet. Lets face facts here.

AQ is not in the business of massive BW research program. They

will more than likely steal one or buy one. So we go to the

sources.



Again, hundreds dead is just as bad as thousands and millions

especially the psychological aftermath of a BW weapon. The

difference between a nuke and a BW is one of sight as well. You

can see the aftermath of a nuke and BW? You do not see it right

away. The unknown is much more frightening than the known.



Bin Lidin and AQ like the KISS Principle (keep It Simple Stupid).

911 was more a decapitation strike than a terrorist event. We war

game this scenario, but we use nukes. AQ did almost the same

thing with the KISS Principle. And they will continue with KISS.

The RDD is a KISS Weapon, a low yield nuke is a KISS weapon, a BW

is much more complex. CW is also very easy in confined areas such

as subways. But make no mistake if AQ could gets its hands on a

nuke or a BW it would use it. 



Once again all I am saying is  "The only difference is the order

of magnitude" as in right now, which should be our priority. We

have got to go to the source and kill it. We can prepare all we

want. If something like a nuke or BW were ever used here, I just

don't even want to think about it. 



Gerry



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