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Containing Weapons of Mass Destruction
Hello list,
Yesterday I attended the Columbia University East Central European Center,
Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies, and SIPA UN Studies Program
Lecture: Containing Weapons of Mass Destruction: The UN and the
Non-Proliferation Treaty Speaker: Laszlo Molmar, Ambassador of Hungary to
the United Nations.
Thought I would share some points for those interested in the NPT
(Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Treaty). Ambassador Molnar is a nice
guy and surprisingly spoke openly and candidly. These were just a few of the
highlights of the talk.
Who is Ambassador Laszlo Molnar of the Hungary UN MIssion? He is the
outgoing Chairman of what is know as PrepCom or the Preparatory Committee of
the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).
This Committee is meeting here in NYC on May 7th 2004. Prepcom tries to get
a consensus on most of the issues prior to the main meeting of the NPT
Signatories schedule for 2005, leaving the major items for discussion.
1. This years PrepCom is more complex than ever. This is due to the
developments in Pakistan as in AQ Kahn, Iran and North Korea. BTW, NK has
not officially pulled out of the NPT their seat has been turned over to the
PrepCom Chairman as a holding action so that NK will not have to go through
the readmittance criteria once the issues are resolved. However, there is a
stand still on the issue of North Korea. Nothing has changed. The internal
fighting over protocol continues while the parties agree to continue the
holding action on NK seat. They do not want the horse out of the barn and
lose total control over NK. Of course the Chinese have been limited in help
as well. The most interesting item for this years PrepCom is that the
conference report must be a consensus one unlike the previous one. Talk
about civil wars........
2. The Non Aligned Nations are concerned with the lack of speed in the
reductions of nuclear weapons by the P5 Nations. Their thinking is that if
the P5 Nations would start showing leadership in this area this would send a
strong signal to other non-aligned nations that may be interesting in
pursuing nuclear weapons.
3. Iran and NK are interested in talks directly with the US but the US
refuses to enter into one on one talks with them. Which the US Position is
supported by the UN. The thinking is of course if one nation get's to talk
one on one with the US everyone else will do the same. Of course the UN
does not want to be totally left in the dust nor does the US want to become
the UN. Remember of all the crap we throw at the UN as being ineffective, we
use them as a buffer between us and the rest of the World.
4. The UN is looking for more teeth or a stronger enforcement clause to the
NPT. Don't bet on it though.
5. The next NPT will have a Chapter Seven clause for the control of Special
Nuclear Materials (SNM). However, this Chapter Seven is directed not as the
normal Chapter Seven as in the case of Iraq or Kosovo, but its one that
states the parties directly will take action within their own boarders. Of
course if a party asks for help the Security Council will take up the
issue. Then comes the big question, funding? I have to tell you this scares
the hell out of me. I personally find it a act of stupidity if the UN and US
Mission to the UN thinks this form of a Chapter Seven is even remotely
workable. The black market is very large and covers many countries. The
Ambassador agreed that SNM are a huge problem and one of the focuses of this
next NPT.
6. TactNukes or tactical nuclear weapons. Lets say a, slight problem (sic).
Reduction is not going as planned and with the US talking about low yield
nukes as in bunker busters this next PrepCom will be a exciting one. The
Ambassador pointed out that the US Spends Billions securing Russia's
Nuclear Arsenal, of course this statement was corrected we spent only $740
Million on some of the arsenal helping the Russians better secure their
weapons. This is not to be confused with the $4 Billion in total over the
last decade. This $4 Billion is the total for the reduction and disarmament
of Russia's Strategic Forces as well. Moreover, the Russian's told the UN
they will not go into specifics with the US until the US removes its gravity
nukes in Europe. The Russians have told the UN they only have nukes on their
soil now and so should the Americans. Moreover, the Russian have told the UN
and US that they will only be responsible for nuclear weapons on their soil.
Meaning do not look at them for any nukes now located in their former
republics or any other former Soviet nuke outside their boarders.
Proliferation of materials and technology is a rather large issue.
When asked about the russian inventory and statements made by russian
defectors with regard to an accuurate count in the Russian arsenal the
Ambassador said, that he believes that the Russians do not have a good idea
of what is really in their arsenal. Just thought I would pass this one to
you all so that you can sleep well tonight.
7. Lastly, when asked "does AQ have a nuclear weapon?" The Ambassador's
reply was, "Who can say that they don't". Just in case the Russian arsenal
problem didn't make you lose sleep.
I was surprised at the candidness of the talk......
Gerry Blackwood
New York, New York
PS: Please note the new e-mail address the old one is no longer useful since
it was struck by a virus. Hence the reason for my use of webmail and lists.
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