RE: Chernobyl disaster caused cancer cases in Sweden

["Bjorn Cedervall" <bcradsafers@HOTMAIL.COM>]

No one knows how any why the authors chose the reference (background) level 

at 3 kBq/m2. One may ask what the outcome had been at 2 kBq/m2 or 4 kBq/m2.



One factor that may be important is that there is a downtrend for incidence 

(not deaths) in myocardial infarction (and other related cardiovascular 

diseases) and an uptrend in cancer incidence (as a cause of death CHD is 

approx. down in Sweden from about 54 % to 44 % of all causes over the last 

20 years). Some preliminary info indicates that this may be more pronounced 

in the northern (and colder) parts of Sweden. The Chernobyl fallout areas 

were essentially north of Stockholm in the colder areas (quite heterogenous 

fallout pattern depending on winds and local rain). The downtrend in the 

cardiovascular diseases is probably more pronounced up north. If these 

people live longer there is a higher probability that they will contribute 

to the cancer incidence. A few warmer winters than average in the areas may 

contribute to subsequent increases in cancer incidence over the next years - 

who knows unless it is analyzed?



In other words - regardless of whether the just written could be of 

relevance, with a general uptrend in cancer incidence, statistical fishing 

expeditions should be facilitated - or what do you think?



Someone said today that the paper had been rejected by several other 

journals (which ones?) before it was published. The promotion hypothesis is 

far fetched and the Stewart & Kneale reference (which reasonably only as a 

maximum could underestimate the total cancers of Hiroshima & Nagasaki by a 

few dozens of extra cancer deaths - essentially leukemias) must be quite 

irrelevant as the total seems to land somewhere in the order of 1650 extra 

cancer deaths. As the authors didn't find any extra leukemias and emphasize 

that their cohort wasn't delayed by 5 years the moral seems to be 

inconsistent ("one rule for us and another one for others"). If I am wrong 

in any reasoning - please point it out and I will be the first to correct 

it.



My personal reflections only - not approved by anyone,



Bjorn Cedervall       bcradsafers@hotmail.com

PS. Sorry about a dozen of typos, missed commas etc (there were probably 

more that I am not aware of) in my previous messages - I am sure that you 

got the essence - I can be quite blind looking at the monitor, and in 

addition tired or busy.





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