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Re: LNT - a semantic comment
Regarding Bjorn Cedervall's comment, I couldn't agree more. From Strom
(1998):
"Hypothesis, Theory, or Model?
One piece of terminology should be cleared up right away. Two or more
quantifiable variables may have a relationship or an association (which
may or may not be causal). If the relationship is single-valued and
causal, one may be a function of the other. When a statistical
association between two or more variables is suspected, one may develop
a conjecture, a supposition, or, more formally, a hypothesis. Normally,
we think of a hypothesis as something we test by experiment or
observation. A theory is a formalism that can be used to make
predictions. A model is usually a simplistic but useful description of
observations that can be used for predictions. For example, we have
climate models, economic models, environmental models, nuclear models
(the Weizacker semi-empirical mass formula, for example, or the shell
model predicting stability at 'magic numbers' of nucleons). In fact,
well after submitting the abstract for this talk, I was delighted to see
a paper in the March 13, 1997 issue of Nature entitled "The use and
abuse of climate models" (Trenberth 1997). I wonder where he got his
title?
No one expects models to be exact or completely correct, just useful.
My favorite quote on the subject is 'All models are wrong, but some are
useful' (George E.P. Box, 1979)."
References
Box, G.E.P. Robustness is the Strategy of Scientific Model Building. p.
202 in: Launer, R.L.; Wilkinson, G.L. eds. Robustness in Statistics;
New York: Academic Press; 1979.
Strom DJ. 1998. "Uses and Abuses of Models in Radiation Risk Management.
http://www.pnl.gov/bayesian/strom/pdfs/Strom1998M_PNNL-SA-36701_Uses_&_A
buses.PDF Radiation Protection Management 15(6):17-43.
- Dan Strom
The opinions expressed above, if any, are mine alone and have not been
reviewed or approved by Battelle, the Pacific Northwest National
Laboratory, or the U.S. Department of Energy.
Daniel J. Strom, Ph.D., CHP
Environmental Technology Directorate, Pacific Northwest National
Laboratory
Mail Stop K3-56, PO BOX 999, Richland, Washington 99352-0999 USA
Overnight: Battelle for the U.S. DOE, 790 6th St., Richland WA 99354
ATTN: Dan Strom K3-56
Telephone (509) 375-2626 FAX (509) 375-2019 mailto:strom@pnl.gov
Brief Resume: http://www.pnl.gov/bayesian/strom/strombio.htm
Online Publications: http://www.pnl.gov/bayesian/strom/strompub.htm
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