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Re: Chernobyl fallout and Swedish cancer incidence
However, the "increased average lifetime" could also
be due to better nutrician or medical care of both.
One trained, as in epidemiology, needs to look at
confounding factors. See paragraph 1.
Your views and wishes do not make good science.
--- howard long <hflong@pacbell.net> wrote:
> Beautiful, Bjorn!
> "Chernobyl fallout - increased average lifetime -"
>
> You are correct, in that selection can support any
> viewpoint. Witness the press!
>
> Howard Long
>
> Bjorn Cedervall <bcradsafers@HOTMAIL.COM> wrote:
> I have now had a preliminary look at the causes of
> death in Sweden the
> period 1986-1996.
> I may add some time before 1986 later to get the
> general trends better
> clarified.
> The focus has been the seven counties (essentially
> parts Sweden north of
> Stockholm) relating to the recent alarm and
> massmedial fallout.
>
> I have not been able to break down the statistics
> into parish level (I
> estimate that 39 % of the deaths in the parishes of
> the seven counties were
> included in the study (considered fallout areas) but
> doubt if it matters
> whether you use 100 % or 39 % for the trends). My
> preliminary conclusions
> are:
>
> 1. The average age at death for the seven counties
> increased the years
> 1986-1996 by about 2.8 years - a higher trend
> increase than for Sweden as a
> whole.
> A vulgar interpretation would be that the Chernobyl
> fallout increased the
> average lifetime of those in the affected areas - I
> would never use such an
> argument. The point is just that you can use this
> type of statistics as you
> like or to quote Karl Popper (1962): "Science is a
> collection of data which
> is to be assembled in accordance with the
> collector's interests and points
> of views".
>
> 2. By using 1986-87 as a reference (no extra
> "cancers" first two years) the
> negative slope for the remaining period becomes
> steeper for deaths from
> cardiovascular diseases. The year 1988 was higher
> than the general
> downtrend. Beginning with 1988 skews the slope by at
> least abround 9 % which
> therefore in turn can be expected to support an
> uptrend in cancer incidence
> (living longer and nit dying from cardiovascular
> disease means increased
> probability of getting cancer).
>
> 3. It seems possible to explain the extra cancer
> incidence (the "849 cases"
> that were forwarded to news media worldwide) by this
> age effect alone.
>
> I any information comes up that makes these
> preliminary concludions invalid
> I intend to come back here on Radsafers.
>
> I have not been able to adjust for shifts or
> differences in age pyramids,
> people moving to or from the counties etc.
>
> My Friday evening interest and personal reflections
> only,
>
> Bjorn Cedervall bcradsafers@hotmail.com
>
>
>
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=====
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-- John
John Jacobus, MS
Certified Health Physicist
e-mail: crispy_bird@yahoo.com
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