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Re: Stochastic vs. Non-Stochastic (from the Denver Thread)
Amazing how that limit of 10 R, or 100 mSv, keeps
coming up as a threshold, isn't it?.
--- "James G. Barnes" <james.g.barnes@att.net> wrote:
> No, I don't think you're oversimplifying.
>
> It's an interesting point that I hadn't considered.
> If there were embedded
> "sensitives" in the general population, then one
> would think you'd see an
> increase in cancer rates in a rad worker population,
> and we generally don't
> see such things until crossing a threshold of 10 -
> 20 R total lifetime dose.
>
> Hmmmm.
>
> Jim
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Crossley, Steven"
> <Steven.Crossley@health.wa.gov.au>
> To: <radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu>
> Sent: Monday, December 20, 2004 5:06 PM
> Subject: RE: Stochastic vs. Non-Stochastic (from the
> Denver Thread)
>
>
> > A thought on this topic...
> >
> > Presumably you are suggesting that there would be
> some lower than
> > average (but above average background) threshold
> level for the
> > susceptible members of the population. A group
> that always get cancer
> > from background levels would presumably have been
> removed by natural
> > selection.
> >
> > If this were the case would evidence not appear
> for radiation workers,
> > in that we generally receive slightly above
> background doses and we
> > would presumably have just as high a proportion of
> radio-sensitive
> > persons amongst us as the general population.
> >
> > Perhaps I'm over-simplifying
> >
> > Steve Crossley
> > Perth, Australia
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: owner-radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu
> > [mailto:owner-radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu] On
> Behalf Of Richard L. Hess
> > Sent: Tuesday, 21 December 2004 6:56 AM
> > To: james.g.barnes@att.net; RadSafe Bulletin Board
> > Subject: Re: Stochastic vs. Non-Stochastic (from
> the Denver Thread)
> >
> > Hello, Jim,
> >
> > Just to make sure I understand what you're saying,
> let me take it to a
> > different stimulus-response situation.
> >
> > I know if I eat a LOT of peanut butter, I'll get
> fatter than I already
> > am and may die sooner.
> >
> > However, if my son gets close to peanut butter he
> will have an allergic
> > reaction and may die without treatment.
> >
> > In this case, we know of the allergic sensitivity
> and suspect peanut
> > butter is a serious potential trigger. We carry
> medicine for him at all
> > times.
> >
> > Are you suggesting that there may be some
> sensitivity (like the food
> > allergy) or some lack of protective mechanism in
> some random group of
> > the population that makes them more sensitive to
> low level doses?
> >
> > If so, it sounds like an interesting course of
> investigation to follow.
> >
> > It also may extend to cancers in general, and not
> just radiation-induced
> > cancers, don't you think? Sounds like a lot more
> work on the human
> > genome might tease this out.
> >
> > Cheers,
> >
> > Richard
> > http://www.richardhess.com/tape/
> > Aurora, Ontario
> >
> > At 09:19 PM 12/20/2004 +0000,
> james.g.barnes@att.net wrote:
> > >Dear all;
> > >
> > >There is a general opinion that there are
> stochastic and non-stochastic
> >
> > >effects. We say they are stochastic because the
> effects from exposure
> > >appear to be statistically distributed in the
> population (we can't
> > >predict who will experience effects, therefore we
> say it's a chance
> > >event). We say non-stochastic, because above a
> certain threshold, all
> > >exposed persons appear to display the same set of
> symptoms.
> > >
> > >I've often considered this approach to have a gap
> in logic. We are
> > >saying that the chances of experiencing effects
> from low-doses is a
> > "chance"
> > >thing. What if they are not; what if they are
> just as non-stochastic
> > >as the effects at higher doses, but only to a
> sub-group of people who
> > >are more inclined to display effects than others
> (probably through
> > >genetic pre-disposition). What if there were
> sub-groups who simply
> > >could not physiologically handle radiation
> exposure as well as
> > >everybody else, and that these "stochastic
> effects" are actually due to
> >
> > >the stochastic distribution of these
> overly-sensitive individuals in an
> >
> > >otherwise normal population. The effects aren't
> stochastic; the
> > >distribution of these sensitive individuals in
> the overall population
> > is the stochastic distribution.
> > >
> > >I have to think this alternative theory has been
> explored to some
> > >degree? Have any of you seen any discussion /
> research into this
> > concept?
> > >
> > >
> > >Jim Barnes
> > >
> >
> >
> >
>
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