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Re: Stochastic vs. Non-Stochastic (from the Denver Thread)



Amazing how that limit of 10 R, or 100 mSv, keeps

coming up as a threshold, isn't it?.



--- "James G. Barnes" <james.g.barnes@att.net> wrote:



> No, I don't think you're oversimplifying.

> 

> It's an interesting point that I hadn't considered. 

> If there were embedded

> "sensitives" in the general population, then one

> would think you'd see an

> increase in cancer rates in a rad worker population,

> and we generally don't

> see such things until crossing a threshold of 10 -

> 20 R total lifetime dose.

> 

> Hmmmm.

> 

> Jim

> 

> ----- Original Message ----- 

> From: "Crossley, Steven"

> <Steven.Crossley@health.wa.gov.au>

> To: <radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu>

> Sent: Monday, December 20, 2004 5:06 PM

> Subject: RE: Stochastic vs. Non-Stochastic (from the

> Denver Thread)

> 

> 

> > A thought on this topic...

> >

> > Presumably you are suggesting that there would be

> some lower than

> > average (but above average background) threshold

> level for the

> > susceptible members of the population.  A group

> that always get cancer

> > from background levels would presumably have been

> removed by natural

> > selection.

> >

> > If this were the case would evidence not appear

> for radiation workers,

> > in that we generally receive slightly above

> background doses and we

> > would presumably have just as high a proportion of

> radio-sensitive

> > persons amongst us as the general population.

> >

> > Perhaps I'm over-simplifying

> >

> > Steve Crossley

> > Perth, Australia

> >

> > -----Original Message-----

> > From: owner-radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu

> > [mailto:owner-radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu] On

> Behalf Of Richard L. Hess

> > Sent: Tuesday, 21 December 2004 6:56 AM

> > To: james.g.barnes@att.net; RadSafe Bulletin Board

> > Subject: Re: Stochastic vs. Non-Stochastic (from

> the Denver Thread)

> >

> > Hello, Jim,

> >

> > Just to make sure I understand what you're saying,

> let me take it to a

> > different stimulus-response situation.

> >

> > I know if I eat a LOT of peanut butter, I'll get

> fatter than I already

> > am and may die sooner.

> >

> > However, if my son gets close to peanut butter he

> will have an allergic

> > reaction and may die without treatment.

> >

> > In this case, we know of the allergic sensitivity

> and suspect peanut

> > butter is a serious potential trigger. We carry

> medicine for him at all

> > times.

> >

> > Are you suggesting that there may be some

> sensitivity (like the food

> > allergy) or some lack of protective mechanism in

> some random group of

> > the population that makes them more sensitive to

> low level doses?

> >

> > If so, it sounds like an interesting course of

> investigation to follow.

> >

> > It also may extend to cancers in general, and not

> just radiation-induced

> > cancers, don't you think? Sounds like a lot more

> work on the human

> > genome might tease this out.

> >

> > Cheers,

> >

> > Richard

> > http://www.richardhess.com/tape/

> > Aurora, Ontario

> >

> > At 09:19 PM 12/20/2004 +0000,

> james.g.barnes@att.net wrote:

> > >Dear all;

> > >

> > >There is a general opinion that there are

> stochastic and non-stochastic

> >

> > >effects.  We say they are stochastic because the

> effects from exposure

> > >appear to be statistically distributed in the

> population (we can't

> > >predict who will experience effects, therefore we

> say it's a chance

> > >event).  We say non-stochastic, because above a

> certain threshold, all

> > >exposed persons appear to display the same set of

> symptoms.

> > >

> > >I've often considered this approach to have a gap

> in logic.  We are

> > >saying that the chances of experiencing effects

> from low-doses is a

> > "chance"

> > >thing.  What if they are not; what if they are

> just as non-stochastic

> > >as the effects at higher doses, but only to a

> sub-group of people who

> > >are more inclined to display effects than others

> (probably through

> > >genetic pre-disposition).  What if there were

> sub-groups who simply

> > >could not physiologically handle radiation

> exposure as well as

> > >everybody else, and that these "stochastic

> effects" are actually due to

> >

> > >the stochastic distribution of these

> overly-sensitive individuals in an

> >

> > >otherwise normal population.  The effects aren't

> stochastic; the

> > >distribution of these sensitive individuals in

> the overall population

> > is the stochastic distribution.

> > >

> > >I have to think this alternative theory has been

> explored to some

> > >degree?  Have any of you seen any discussion /

> research into this

> > concept?

> > >

> > >

> > >Jim Barnes

> > >

> >

> >

> >

>

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>

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"The real threat to the life of the nation, in the sense of a people living in accordance with its traditional laws and political values, comes not from terrorism but from laws such as these."

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-- John

John Jacobus, MS

Certified Health Physicist

e-mail:  crispy_bird@yahoo.com





		

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