Outlook for European NPP by Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

[Maury Siskel <maurysis@ev1.net>]

Please forgive posting this lengthy article, but it is too good to not 

share it with Radsafers. I share daily a large amount of worldwide 

geopolitical subject matter with many friends and relatives; this 

particular item should bring serious pleasure and satisfaction to 

Radsafers and thus seemed appropriate to share here.

Cheers,

Maury&Dog          maurysis@ev1.net

===============

Central Europe: A Strategy of Nuclear Empowerment



Summary



Some Central European countries are reexamining their energy policies 

and considering the use of nuclear power as an alternative to natural 

gas. Nearly all of Central Europe relies on Russian energy, which puts 

the region in the awkward position of depending on a country outside its 

security cordon to meet its

energy needs. Especially if the United States and Russia square off in 

the next few years, the Central Europeans -- who need NATO and the 

United States for their security -- will face a difficult choice. The 

only way to avoid it is to generate energy at home.



Analysis



The Slovakian Economy Ministry announced Jan. 17 that it would 

re-evaluate its energy policy, last formulated in 1999, and consider a 

move toward using more nuclear energy. Other European countries, 

including Lithuania and Finland, already are building

-- or planning to build -- nuclear reactors.



Most countries in Central Europe receive the majority of their oil and 

gas from Russia. It is a mutually beneficial arrangement that keeps 

relations between the two regions on an even keel. Europe needs Russian 

energy and Russia needs money. But the

threat of Moscow shutting off gas supplies to Europe is a lever Russia 

could use to influence the European Union. Several EU countries -- 

especially those in Central Europe (who are the most afraid of Russia) 

-- consider their national security to be in the hands of NATO and the 

United States. Thus, their reliance on

Russian energy puts them in an awkward position. Should Russia and the 

United States clash, Central Europeans would have to wean themselves 

from Russian energy, and the most efficient way to do

that is through nuclear power.



At present, about 20 percent of the European Union's natural gas imports 

come from Russia. Some EU countries get nearly all of their natural gas 

(which is used primarily for electricity) from Russia, including the 

Baltic states, Finland and Slovakia. Russian gas also accounts for more 

than half the consumption of

the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. These countries would love to 

reduce their reliance on Russian gas. The problem is that there are no 

other readily available suppliers. The North Sea slowly is running dry, 

while Algeria -- Europe's other major gas

source -- is too far away for efficient transport.



Nearly all of the Central European states are former Russian republics 

or satellites. They remember well their treatment under the Soviet Union 

and still fear that Moscow will try to reassert its influence or even 

reinvade. The Central Europeans have all joined NATO and explicitly 

stated they will trust in that organization -- not the European Union, 

which lacks a common

defense force -- for their national security. NATO is dominated by the 

United States, so the security of NATO-member countries is implicitly 

dependent on Washington. With the exception of Slovenia, all of the 

Central European countries joined the U.S.- led "coalition of the 

willing" and lent troops or other support to the invasion of Iraq.



At the moment, Russia is a country in flux as it struggles to decide how 

to react to the loss of Ukraine and the geopolitical maneuverings of the 

West (mainly the United States). One of Moscow's options is to reassert 

itself, which could bring it into conflict with Washington.



Central Europe also is in a precarious position. To satisfy its energy 

needs, it must rely on an enormous nearby country that it does not 

trust. At the same time, to satisfy its security needs, it must rely on 

a huge country that is far away. France and Germany -- the EU 

heavyweights -- are of little help politically.

France has a plethora of nuclear power and receives only 25 percent of 

its gas from Russia, and Berlin is busy cozying up to Moscow in hopes of 

gaining market access and political clout.



Nevertheless, France's use of nuclear power can be an example for 

Central Europe to follow. Nuclear power can be used instead of natural 

gas to produce electricity. It is also a cheaper and more reliable 

method of generating electricity. While much of Western Europe is moving 

away from nuclear power because of environmental and safety concerns, 

France is at the forefront of developing state-of-the-art reactors and 

has offered to help other countries

adopt the new technology. France's Economy and Finance Ministry is 

volunteering the expertise of French companies to help Lithuania build a 

new reactor, and the French nuclear energy group Areva is a co-partner 

in the construction of Finland's new

Olkiluoto reactor.



Several Central European countries have already taken the initiative to 

develop nuclear power. After addressing safety concerns, the Czech 

Republic brought its Temelin nuclear power plant back on line in 2000 

and put a second unit into service in 2003. Combined, the units produce 

over 20 percent of Czech power needs. Finland currently has four nuclear 

reactors that produce just over one-quarter of its electricity. The 

Slovakian Economy Ministry has said that it would like to add two units 

to a nuclear power plant in Mochovce and increase output of the

existing two units.



The quest for nuclear power runs into one small problem -- money. As 

part of their accession treaties, Central European countries (along with 

Bulgaria and Romania, candidates for membership in 2007) pledged to 

close down within seven to 10 years any nuclear

reactors that did not conform to Western safety standards. 

Unfortunately, most of the existing reactors in Central Europe were 

built by the Soviets, and the European Union considers them out-of-date 

and extremely unsafe. New reactors are safer and have

greater capacity but they are not cheap. Finland's 1,600-megawatt 

pressurized-water reactor now under construction will cost an estimated 

$3.7 billion. A new reactor would cost Slovakia 10 percent of its $32 

million gross domestic product (GDP) and Lithuania 16 percent of its $18 

billion GDP. One benefit for Central European countries, formerly part 

of the Soviet Union, is that they joined the EU in 2004 with a low 

amount of debt and can more easily incur new debt to build nuclear power 

plants.



Although Russia is not likely to shut off oil and gas supplies to 

Central Europe any time soon, just the possibility of losing natural gas 

supplies is enough to cause the formulation of a whole new energy 

strategy. Keeping the lights on is a top priority for the European 

Union, and it wants to do so with a minimum amount of geopolitical 

hassle. By developing its own nuclear power, Central Europe can avoid 

choosing between a nearby supplier and a distant protector.



(c) 2004 Strategic Forecasting, Inc. All rights reserved.

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