AW: Outlook for European NPP by Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

[Franz Schönhofer <franz.schoenhofer@chello.at>]

Before I answer anything on that funny article I would like to know,

whether this might have been intended as provocation for Europeans. I

would like as well to know, what a "Strategic Forecasting, Inc." is,

whether this is a commercial company writing what the funding

organisations want them to write, how much they are paid for writing

such incredible nonsense. I do not feel any "pleasure" or "satisfaction"

on reading this nonsensical "political analysis". The "analysis" uses a

scenario of facts more than 20 years old, typically for the Cold War and

even the McCarthy era. Nobody in the European Union, including the new

members of the EU and former members of the Eastern Block is afraid of

"Russia". We really do not need NATO. The European Union is developing

independence and even such a small country like Austria is denying a

very big one transfer of war planes over its territory, which are

designated to contribute in attacks in an illegal war. 



I do not know what this has to do with nuclear power. If the USA had

developed nuclear power as its intentions were hailed four years ago on

RADSAFE and if they had dimished energy consumption, because it simply

is not acceptable that a small percentage of the world population

consumes (if I remember correctly) 25 % of oil then it might not have

been necessary to attack illegally another country. What source for

(electrical) power to use is a question of availability, of costs, of

costs, of costs, of costs..... 



Next time more comments.



Franz 



Franz Schoenhofer

PhD, MR iR

Habicherg. 31/7

A-1160 Vienna

AUSTRIA

phone -43-0699-1168-1319



------------------------------------------------------------------------

-

> -----Ursprüngliche Nachricht-----

> Von: owner-radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu [mailto:owner-

> radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu] Im Auftrag von Maury Siskel

> Gesendet: Mittwoch, 19. Jänner 2005 06:49

> An: Radiation Safety

> Betreff: Outlook for European NPP by Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

> 

> Please forgive posting this lengthy article, but it is too good to not

> share it with Radsafers. I share daily a large amount of worldwide

> geopolitical subject matter with many friends and relatives; this

> particular item should bring serious pleasure and satisfaction to

> Radsafers and thus seemed appropriate to share here.

> Cheers,

> Maury&Dog          maurysis@ev1.net

> ===============

> Central Europe: A Strategy of Nuclear Empowerment

> 

> Summary

> 

> Some Central European countries are reexamining their energy policies

> and considering the use of nuclear power as an alternative to natural

> gas. Nearly all of Central Europe relies on Russian energy, which puts

> the region in the awkward position of depending on a country outside

its

> security cordon to meet its

> energy needs. Especially if the United States and Russia square off in

> the next few years, the Central Europeans -- who need NATO and the

> United States for their security -- will face a difficult choice. The

> only way to avoid it is to generate energy at home.

> 

> Analysis

> 

> The Slovakian Economy Ministry announced Jan. 17 that it would

> re-evaluate its energy policy, last formulated in 1999, and consider a

> move toward using more nuclear energy. Other European countries,

> including Lithuania and Finland, already are building

> -- or planning to build -- nuclear reactors.

> 

> Most countries in Central Europe receive the majority of their oil and

> gas from Russia. It is a mutually beneficial arrangement that keeps

> relations between the two regions on an even keel. Europe needs

Russian

> energy and Russia needs money. But the

> threat of Moscow shutting off gas supplies to Europe is a lever Russia

> could use to influence the European Union. Several EU countries --

> especially those in Central Europe (who are the most afraid of Russia)

> -- consider their national security to be in the hands of NATO and the

> United States. Thus, their reliance on

> Russian energy puts them in an awkward position. Should Russia and the

> United States clash, Central Europeans would have to wean themselves

> from Russian energy, and the most efficient way to do

> that is through nuclear power.

> 

> At present, about 20 percent of the European Union's natural gas

imports

> come from Russia. Some EU countries get nearly all of their natural

gas

> (which is used primarily for electricity) from Russia, including the

> Baltic states, Finland and Slovakia. Russian gas also accounts for

more

> than half the consumption of

> the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. These countries would love to

> reduce their reliance on Russian gas. The problem is that there are no

> other readily available suppliers. The North Sea slowly is running

dry,

> while Algeria -- Europe's other major gas

> source -- is too far away for efficient transport.

> 

> Nearly all of the Central European states are former Russian republics

> or satellites. They remember well their treatment under the Soviet

Union

> and still fear that Moscow will try to reassert its influence or even

> reinvade. The Central Europeans have all joined NATO and explicitly

> stated they will trust in that organization -- not the European Union,

> which lacks a common

> defense force -- for their national security. NATO is dominated by the

> United States, so the security of NATO-member countries is implicitly

> dependent on Washington. With the exception of Slovenia, all of the

> Central European countries joined the U.S.- led "coalition of the

> willing" and lent troops or other support to the invasion of Iraq.

> 

> At the moment, Russia is a country in flux as it struggles to decide

how

> to react to the loss of Ukraine and the geopolitical maneuverings of

the

> West (mainly the United States). One of Moscow's options is to

reassert

> itself, which could bring it into conflict with Washington.

> 

> Central Europe also is in a precarious position. To satisfy its energy

> needs, it must rely on an enormous nearby country that it does not

> trust. At the same time, to satisfy its security needs, it must rely

on

> a huge country that is far away. France and Germany -- the EU

> heavyweights -- are of little help politically.

> France has a plethora of nuclear power and receives only 25 percent of

> its gas from Russia, and Berlin is busy cozying up to Moscow in hopes

of

> gaining market access and political clout.

> 

> Nevertheless, France's use of nuclear power can be an example for

> Central Europe to follow. Nuclear power can be used instead of natural

> gas to produce electricity. It is also a cheaper and more reliable

> method of generating electricity. While much of Western Europe is

moving

> away from nuclear power because of environmental and safety concerns,

> France is at the forefront of developing state-of-the-art reactors and

> has offered to help other countries

> adopt the new technology. France's Economy and Finance Ministry is

> volunteering the expertise of French companies to help Lithuania build

a

> new reactor, and the French nuclear energy group Areva is a co-partner

> in the construction of Finland's new

> Olkiluoto reactor.

> 

> Several Central European countries have already taken the initiative

to

> develop nuclear power. After addressing safety concerns, the Czech

> Republic brought its Temelin nuclear power plant back on line in 2000

> and put a second unit into service in 2003. Combined, the units

produce

> over 20 percent of Czech power needs. Finland currently has four

nuclear

> reactors that produce just over one-quarter of its electricity. The

> Slovakian Economy Ministry has said that it would like to add two

units

> to a nuclear power plant in Mochovce and increase output of the

> existing two units.

> 

> The quest for nuclear power runs into one small problem -- money. As

> part of their accession treaties, Central European countries (along

with

> Bulgaria and Romania, candidates for membership in 2007) pledged to

> close down within seven to 10 years any nuclear

> reactors that did not conform to Western safety standards.

> Unfortunately, most of the existing reactors in Central Europe were

> built by the Soviets, and the European Union considers them

out-of-date

> and extremely unsafe. New reactors are safer and have

> greater capacity but they are not cheap. Finland's 1,600-megawatt

> pressurized-water reactor now under construction will cost an

estimated

> $3.7 billion. A new reactor would cost Slovakia 10 percent of its $32

> million gross domestic product (GDP) and Lithuania 16 percent of its

$18

> billion GDP. One benefit for Central European countries, formerly part

> of the Soviet Union, is that they joined the EU in 2004 with a low

> amount of debt and can more easily incur new debt to build nuclear

power

> plants.

> 

> Although Russia is not likely to shut off oil and gas supplies to

> Central Europe any time soon, just the possibility of losing natural

gas

> supplies is enough to cause the formulation of a whole new energy

> strategy. Keeping the lights on is a top priority for the European

> Union, and it wants to do so with a minimum amount of geopolitical

> hassle. By developing its own nuclear power, Central Europe can avoid

> choosing between a nearby supplier and a distant protector.

> 

> (c) 2004 Strategic Forecasting, Inc. All rights reserved.

>

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