[ RadSafe ] 51 years later, cancers from Bikini Atoll H-bomb tests only half over

[Franta, Jaroslav]

-----Original Message-----
From: radsafe-bounces at radlab.nl [mailto:radsafe-bounces at radlab.nl]On Behalf
Of James Salsman
Sent: Monday, April 18, 2005 12:39 AM

http://www.abc.net.au/ra/news/stories/s1347234.htm
A United States study has found that the number of cancers caused by
hydrogen bomb testing in Marshall Islands is set to double.
The study by the US government's National Cancer Institute (NCI) estimates
530 cancers have already been caused by the tests. 
It points to the 1954 explosion of a 15 megaton hydrogen bomb codenamed
Bravo.

<SNIP>



That's interesting -- the number of Marshallese evacuated from Rongelap (67)
Rongerik (28) and Alingenae (19) following the Bravo test totalled a little
over one hundred, yet "NCI estimates 530 cancers have already been caused." 

The highest whole-body dose was received by the Rongelapese, some 175 rem
(thyroid doses from radioiodine for children less than 10y old ranged from
810 - 1800 rem -- several thyroidectomies were performed in subsequent
years, and one died of thyroid cancer).

Applying LNT using 0.05 cancer fatalities per 100 rem (1 Sv) of collective
dose, the predicted number of cancers = (67*175 + 28*78 + 19*69)*0.05/100 =
15220*0.05/100 = 7.6 cancers
Of course, using such collective dose calculations for cancer estimates is
discouraged by the HPS.
It appears that the NCI study authors may have gone one step further,
applying the ill-advised calculation method to much lower doses received by
far larger populations -- perhaps even to world-wide fallout, in the style
of Bertell & co. ?

According to Eisenbud, investigators found that the severity of injuries
were related to obvious factors such as bathing habits: Rongelapese children
who spent much time wading in the lagoon had much reduced contamination
levels.

Jaro Franta, P.Eng.
Tel.: (514) 875-3444
Montréal, Québec 
frantaj at aecl.ca
web master, CNS-Québec web site
http://www.cns-snc.ca/branches/quebec/quebec.html

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