[ RadSafe ] THE FACTS ABOUT "PATTERNS OF GLOBAL

[Gerry Blackwood]

http://counterterror.typepad.com/the_counterterrorism_blog/2005/04/the_facts_about.html#moreTHE FACTS ABOUT "PATTERNS OF GLOBAL TERRORISM" (UPDATED with released "Country Reports on Terrorism 2004" and NCTC Chronology)
by
Larry C. Johnson

(UPDATE: Larry appeared on MSNBC today on this story.) After being outed on this blog site for their surreptitious effort to keep the statistics on international terrorism away from the Congress and the American people, the State Department and the National Counter Terrorism Center (NCTC) did a partial reverse today and released some statistics. (UPDATE: Here is link to "Country Reports on Terrorism 2004", and here is the new NCTC "Chronology of Significant International Terrorism for 2004.") As we reported earlier the number of significant incidents of terrorism in 2004 (a significant incidents means someone was killed, wounded, or kidnapped or there was property damage greater than $10,000) was the highest ever recorded. In addition, the number of fatalities is the second highest total recorded in 37 years--2001 still holds the infamous record for first place. 

Rather than admit that the seventh floor at State was stunned by the figures, Phil Zelikow offers spin that this is a new effort that flows from the recommendations of the 9-11 Commission. This my friends is pure, unadulterated horse manure. What is truly ironic is that although the 9-11 Commission called for greater coordination within the intelligence community and between the intelligence community and policymakers, it is Zelikow, the Commission's former Staff Director, who is leading the charge to hinder such cooperation. Here are the facts about how Patterns of Global Terrorism has been produced prior to this year:

Starting at least in June 1981, the CIA released a report titled, PATTERNS OF INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM: 1980. The CIA was responsible for collecting the data and writing the analysis. This was produced by the National Foreign Assessment Center. (I have one of the originals.)

In 1986, following the creation of the Counter Terrorism Center (CTC) at CIA, the State Department took charge of releasing the report and it was renamed, PATTERNS OF GLOBAL TERRORISM. However, the CTC continued its job of collecting the data and writing the analysis in conjunction with the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR). The Office of the Coordinator for Counter Terrorism (S/CT) issued the report. Until this year, that is how the report was produced. CIA collected the statistics, the CTC with INR wrote the narrative of the report, and the Office of the Coordinator for Counter Terrorism coordinated the effort and wrote the regional summary sections of the report.

Problems arose in late 2003 when the responsibility for compiling the statistics and writing the narrative shifted from CTC to the new Terrorist Threat Integration Center (TTIC). As a result State Department coordinated with TTIC rather than CTC, but the process remained the same. As a side note, the failure to totally and accurately count all incidents of international terrorism in 2003 was essentially a clerical error by TTIC.

As a result of the Intelligence Reform Act TTIC has been folded into the National Counter Terrorism Center(NCTC). NCTC has assumed the task of compiling statistics and writing the analysis as was the case with its predecessor, CTC. 

For Phil Zelikow to claim like a 21st Century version of Freddie Prinze, "It's not our yob" would be funny if the issues were not so serious. State Department still has the lead for dealing with international terrorism on a country by country basis. What do we do about Pakistan, for example, where elements of their Intelligence service continue to protect and host Al Qaida and other Islamic extremists implicated in terrorist attacks in the Kashmir region of India? While NCTC may provide the data it is up to the State Department to craft and implement a policy towards Pakistan that meets the goal of reducing terrorism and promoting security between Pakistan and India. How can they do this if, "the numbers don't matter"?

If State Department does not work closely with NCTC to figure out which groups in the world are killing and wounding innocent civilians how in the world can they construct an effective policy to deal with the terrorist threat? The report may be out but some tough questions still need to be asked and some honest answers provided. Prior to 2005 we had one report that brought together the intelligence community and policymakers in a joint effort to report on international terrorism. Now we have two reports going in different directions. This is exactly what the 9-11 Commission said we should not be doing.

NOTE: You can obtain the "Patterns" reports back to 1986 on the MIPT site.

 
 
http://counterterror.typepad.com/the_counterterrorism_blog/files/NCTC%20Chronology%202004.pdf


"Dante once said that the hottest places in hell are reserved for those who in a period of moral crisis maintain their neutrality."