[ RadSafe ] markey-connection between infant mortality and nukes

[Flowerday, Scott]

Don't want to let truth get in the way of statistics.  Here is an article
that sheds some light on "the rest of the story."

Toxic Math

Published In: Chicago Tribune
Publication Date: February 1, 2004
Publisher: Chicago Tribune

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A New York-based group called the Radiation and Public Health Project
recently released seemingly alarming statistics about cancer and infant
health in downstate Grundy County. The group implied that an alleged rise in
health problems was related to the Dresden 2 and 3 nuclear reactors in
Morris, which have license renewals pending before the Nuclear Regulatory
Commission.

"Infant deaths, childhood cancer soar near Dresden plant," a statement from
the group shouted. 

This is the same group that has drawn accusations of peddling junk science
for its ongoing project to assess the impact of above-ground nuclear bomb
testing by examining old collections of baby teeth. In Grundy County, its
case is a textbook example of the old saw, "Statistics will tell you
anything if you torture them enough."

At the request of the Tribune, Tiefu Shen, chief of the division of
epidemiological studies at the Illinois Department of Public Health, took a
look at the numbers. In example after example, he said, the statistics cited
by the group were technically accurate, but meaningless.

A clue that something's fishy is that the group cherry-picked time frames
instead of looking at health statistics over the same period of time. The
group examined infant deaths from 1990 to 2000. But it looked at birth
defects from 1992 to 2001. For cancer rates, it was 1986 to 1999.

A well-chosen time frame affects one of the group's most eye-catching
claims: the cancer rate for Grundy County youths (15 years old and younger)
nearly quadrupled.

The baseline was 1990 to 1994, when there was one instance of cancer
recorded. That was compared to 1995 to 2000, when there were six. Adjust for
population growth, annualize the rates and voila! The group can claim a 377
percent increase in cancer rates.

What the group doesn't mention is the inconvenient fact that Grundy County's
cancer rate for youths 15 and under is lower than the state's. (Grundy
County's rate was 8.1 cancers per 100,000 people from 1990 to 2000; the
state's was 13.7 per 100,000.) As population in the county rises, you would
expect cancer rates in Grundy County's to converge with state cancer rates.

A statistician would rightly point out that the smaller the population, the
less reliable health statistics will be. Statistically, Grundy County's
cancer rate for youths is indistinguishable from the state's rate. The key
point is that there's no sign of an unusual amount of cancer among Grundy
County youths.

The group found the rate of infant deaths "soared 98 percent" from the first
half of the 1990s to the second half, while it fell 11 percent statewide.

But Grundy County's infant mortality rate is lower than the state's: From
1997 to 2001, it was 5.9 deaths per 1,000 live births compared to 6.2
statewide.

For seven out of 10 health measures cited by the radiation group, there's no
statistical difference between Grundy County and the state.

On two measures--babies born with low birth weight or very low birth
weight--Grundy County does significantly better than the state. In only one
measure, cancer deaths for those over 65, Grundy County looks worse than the
state. In that case, Grundy County's rate resembles neighboring Kendall
County, which doesn't have a nuclear power plant.

"Overall, we don't see a systematic pattern indicating that Grundy County's
health statistics are worse than the state's," Shen said.

Beyond that, there is no evidence to suggest that deaths in the county can
be traced to the nuclear plant.

In 2000, the Illinois Public Health Department compared child cancer
statistics for counties with nuclear reactors and compared them to similar
counties without reactors. It found no statistically significant difference.

In a study published in 1990, the National Institutes of Health looked at
cancer rates and proximity to 62 nuclear power plants. It found no
connection. In January 2001, the Connecticut Academy of Science and
Engineering published a report on cancer rates among people living near the
Haddam Neck nuclear power plant. The academy found no link there either.

The point is not to summarily dismiss concerns about nuclear power plants
and health. Of course, nuclear power plants should be monitored and
regulated closely. But critics only lose credibility by stoking fears with
trumped-up statistics purporting to show a link between nuclear plants and
illness. The Radiation and Public Health Project's case is a dud.
 

-----Original Message-----
From: Norm Cohen [mailto:ncohen12 at comcast.net] 
Sent: Wednesday, February 23, 2005 12:36 PM
To: know_nukes at yahoogroups.com; radsafe at radlab.nl
Cc: downwinders.yahoogroups.com; nukenet at energyjustice.net; NukeParanoia;
unplugsalem at yahoogroups.com; nrc_concerns.yahoogroups.com;
jerseyshorenuclearwatch at yahoogroups.com; nucnews at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [ RadSafe ] markey-connection between infant mortality and nukes

NEWS FROM ED MARKEY
United States Congress			Massachusetts Seventh District
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                            		CONTACT:
Mark Bayer
February 18, 2005
Michal Freedhoff
(202) 225-2836

NEW STUDY SUGGESTS SPIKE IN INFANT MORTALITY ASSOCIATED WITH RADIATION  FROM
NUKE PLANTS
  Markey Questions NRC on Health Risks of Living Near Nuclear Reactors

Washington, DC:  Rep. Edward Markey (D-MA), a senior member of the House
Energy and Commerce Committee, the panel which oversees nuclear power
regulation, today released a letter he sent to the Nuclear Regulatory
Commission (NRC) regarding health risks for communities who live close to
nuclear reactors.  A new study released today by Dr. Ernest Sternglass of
the University of Pittsburgh suggests that infant mortality increased
significantly in 2002,  after operating capacity at 104 nuclear power
stations reached its highest levels.

"The nuclear industry and the NRC have automatically dismissed all studies
that link increased cancer risk to exposure to low levels of radiation,"  
said Rep. Markey. "The reality is that the data suggest that we should be
taking this potential linkage much more seriously."

Rep. Markey's letter to the NRC was motivated by the ordeals of the Sauer
family, former residents of Minooka, IL, which is located close to the
Dresden nuclear power plant.  The family has recently relocated because of
concerns about the health impacts associated with living near the Dresden
plant, which were heightened because of their daughter's brain cancer.  In
June 2003, the NRC was presented with data obtained from the Illinois
Department of Public Health (IDPH) that indicate that in Grundy County, IL
between 1995-99, the infant mortality rate has doubled, there has been a
nearly 400% increase in pediatric cancer and a 38% increase in cancer among
those aged 28-44 years old (while the same statistic for all of IL decreased
by 8%).  Moreover, other statistics show that the incidence of leukemia was
50% higher in men and 100% higher in women in Grundy County than it was in
the rest of the State. In its responses to the Sauers, NRC personnel have
ignored these statistics and have instead cited a 1990 National Cancer
Institute (NCI) study entitled "Cancer in Populations Living Near Nuclear
Facilities", which has numerous flaws in design, since, as the authors
themselves stated, the limitations in the design were accepted so that "it
could be completed in a timeframe that was relatively short for a survey of
such magnitude."

In addition to the Sauer case, Rep. Markey's office has been made aware of
additional studies and data:
*	Today, Dr. Ernest Sternglass of the University of Pittsburgh is  
releasing data at the American Association for the Advancement of Science
meeting in Washington DC indicating a spike in infant mortality that
occurred in 2002, coming after operating capacity at 104 nuclear power
stations reached its highest levels and increased at the highest rate in the
U.S. between 1997 and 2001.  His work also refers to a scientific paper
indicating that low levels of radiation exposure during pregnancy is
directly related to low birth weight which, in addition to infant mortality,
has also been implicated in numerous chronic diseases, including autism,
asthma, cognitive dysfunction, rheumatoid arthritis, anemia, obesity, heart
disease and cancer.
*	A 2003 article by Joseph Mangano et al in Archives of Environmental

Health found elevated levels of childhood cancers in populations living
within 30 miles of nuclear power plants between 1988-1997.  For example, in
Plymouth County, MA (near the Pilgrim Power plant), there was found to be a
14.6% increase in the numbers of childhood cancers as compared to the rest
of the country.  And in Essex County, MA and Rockingham County, NH (near the
Seabrook Power plant), there was found to be a 24.8% increase in the numbers
of childhood cancer mortalities.

"The NRC needs to study - not summarily dismiss - the connection between
serious health risks and radiation released from nuclear reactors.  I am
urging the agency to investigate these risks, and I will continue to closely
monitor the NRC's progress in this important area," Rep. Markey concluded.

For a copy of the letter sent to the NRC, please see www.house.gov/markey





--
Coalition for Peace and Justice
UNPLUG Salem Campaign; 321 Barr Ave, Linwood NJ 08221; 609-601-8583; cell
609-742-0982 ncohen12 at comcast.net; http://www.unplugsalem.org
http://www.coalitionforpeaceandjustice.org

"A time comes when silence is betrayal.
Even when pressed by the demands of
inner truth, men do not easily assume
the task of opposing their government's
policy, especially in time of war.
Nor does the human spirit move without
  great difficulty against all the apathy of conformist thought, within
one's own bosom and in the surrounding world."

- Martin Luther King Jr.

 


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