[ RadSafe ] " U.K. Nuclear Debate Will Raise Dependence on U.S Issue "

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World News & Analysis

U.K. Nuclear Debate Will Raise Dependence on U.S Issue

Aviation Week & Space Technology  07/11/2005, page 37

Douglas Barrie, London

Amy Butler, Washington

In launching a nuclear debate, the U.K. faces addressing its dependence on
Washington

Ballistic Trajectory

Britain is confronted by a choice of moving to sign up for an improved
version of the U.S. Trident D5 submarine-launched ballistic missile or
pursuing a potentially genuinely independent--and initially significantly
more expensive--nuclear delivery system.

The government is using an investment decision on whether to pursue the
improved version of the Trident II D5, the D5A, as an opportunity to
evaluate the British nuclear posture--and the nature of its strategic
weaponry.

The government says it will make a decision on the long-term future of the
Trident system, and the U.K.'s nuclear deterrent capability, during the
course of this parliament.

Prime Minister Tony Blair told Parliament recently "that no decisions on
replacing Trident have yet been taken, but these are likely to be necessary
in the current parliament. It is too early to rule in or to rule out any
particular option."

"The U.K. nuclear issue crystallizes some very important questions," says
Prof. Michael Clarke, a senior lecturer from the International Policy
Institute at London's Kings College. Clarke, speaking at the Royal United
Services Institute conference on the future of the U.K.'s nuclear
capability, notes "the debate this time coincides with the phasing on
decisions."

The Defense Ministry and several defense companies have begun to consider
the options for the U.K.'s next-generation of nuclear systems. As of yet,
however, little if any funding has actually been allocated to this effort.

Since the decision to acquire the U.S. Polaris in 1963, the U.K. capability
has been underpinned increasingly by the U.S. The British Trident missiles
are drawn from a common pool of weapons, and fitted with U.K.-produced
warheads. The warhead design, however, is widely believed to be based on the
U.S. W76. The British Atomic Weapons Establishment--managed by a consortium
of British Nuclear Fuels, Lockheed Martin, and Serco--is responsible for the
design development and manufacture of nuclear warheads.

The Defense Ministry points to the introduction of the D5A variant as a
factor in the timing of its deliberations. This version of the missile will
see certain components replaced because of obsolescence. The aim is to
retain the weapon in U.S. service until 2040.

Defense Ministry officials have previously indicated the introduction of the
D5A early in the next decade means that it will have to be in a position to
replace its own D5 missiles by 2018.

SOME OTHER DEFENSE sources, however, suggest a move from the D5 to the D5A
is a relatively limited shift. This eventual choice, however, is being used
as the peg on which to hang a debate about the very nature of any future
nuclear deterrent, and of the nuclear-relationship between Washington and
London.

Another potential element may be related to long-term funding. The navy's
three small aircraft carriers are due to be replaced with two larger ships
in the first half of the next decade. Some U.K. industry executives have
speculated the navy be faced with a choice of retaining either a nuclear
ballistic missile capability or the carrier acquisition program.

The ruling Labor Party's manifesto in the run-up to the 2005 general
election made clear its "commitment to retain [an] independent nuclear
deterrent."

John Reid, the Secretary of State for Defense, says: "We will continue to
take appropriate steps to ensure that the range of options for maintaining a
nuclear deterrent capability is kept open. We have not yet made an
assessment of the relative merits of such options."

Alongside retaining a submarine-based Trident missile system, the ministry
is reviewing options such as shifting to a cruise missile delivery system.
This could be suitable for submarine and air-launch. The U.K. considered a
tactical-nuclear cruise missile as a replacement for the Royal Air Force's
WE177 free-fall nuclear bomb in the early 1990s, but the program was
canceled. The WE177 was withdrawn from service in 1998. Procurement of the
Tactical Air-to-Surface Missile was abandoned in 1993.

With the Trident the only nuclear system retained in British inventory, the
government has also given it a sub-strategic role. Exactly what this is--and
whether a warhead yield modification is included--has not been released.



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