[ RadSafe ] Re: Hormesis Hidden! "-authors do not report-" !

[John Jacobus]

I suggest you read the article as if it was for the
first time.  Where do you think the expected number
came from?  That is why they change as you go down the
columns.  The observed will always stay the same. 
Please explain that observation.

The reasons the authors do not report a benefit is
that they do not see one.  Of course, you do because
you have a political agenda.  You can take any report
and divine a hidden beneficial result.  Just ignore
the mountain of data that contradicts what you
"believe."  Why bother with data and science.

--- howard long <hflong at pacbell.net> wrote:
> Not statistical manipulations, but actual cases,
> convince me-
> 34 cases of breast cancer where 42.3 expected when
> 1-9rad, 
> 109 cases where 127.8 expected <1rad exposure .(1979
> report)
> 
> "What I find interesting is that the authors do not
> report this benefit."
> Exactly! I have no "devine"(sic) insight, but
> greater skepticism.
>  
> Howard Long
>  
> 
> John Jacobus <crispy_bird at yahoo.com> wrote:
> 
> No, I do not hide the benefits. I am just quoting
> what the authors provided in there report. I have
> included the one page I quoted from so you can see
> what the authors wrote. It appears that there are
> more observed cancers in 1977 than expected. I will
> let you figure out what they say.
> 
> In Table 2 of the 1979 paper, you quote the first
> line
> which is all doses >/= 0. If you look down the
> columns 1/3 of the way down to the dose range of 0-9
> rad for both cities, the observed and expected are
> identical 109/108 and 34/35. From what I understand
> (see page 18), what you are looking at is the data
> as
> is extended, and how it correlates with a linear
> fit. 
> If you consider the bottom set of data for the two
> cities (1/3 way down Table 2), you are trying to fit
> a
> linear curve to the data associated with the
> populations receiving 0, and up to 9 rads. There is
> no demonstrated effect, good or bad. The top lines
> still list the same number of breast cancers, but
> the
> expected number is different as the linear fit has
> more data at higher doses, the the curve has been
> tilted upward as more data "bins" are added on the
> curve. I am not sure if you follow this arguement,
> or
> even want to. You seem to have your mind made up.
> 
> What I find interesting is that in the authors do
> not
> report this benefit. I guess you have some sort of
> devine insight into the results they do not. I
> assume
> that the authors analyzed the data several ways and
> came to the conclusions they did. 
> 
> By the way, I have a nice PDF file of the 1979 and
> 1977 papers if anyone wants to look at the data
> themselves. My purpose is not to convince anyone on
> a
> position, but to look at the science and arguements
> with a critical eye. I give others that opportunity
> by offering anyone the papers I have.
> 
> --- howard long wrote:
> > John quotes conclusions:
> > "Observed 144, Expected 140" 
> > (TOTAL rates for breast cancer are unchanged in
> bomb
> > survivors!) 
> > and, "0-9 rads O 105, E 96." 
> > 
> > John's quoted conclusion, HIDES BENEFITof "1-9
> > rad: O 34, E 42.3," (Table 2 in the body of the
> > paper, attached to e-mail for those of you
> > requesting it) 
> > and BENEFIT at 0-1rad: "O 109, E 127" 
> > 
> > There were increasingly hIgh rates with exposure
> > increase over 10 rad (table 2), reflecting the
> harm
> > expected from high doses, 50-100-200->200 rads
> > 
> > Why, like with the Kyoto press summary, would
> > conclusions differ from the data?
> > I won't risk speculation, for fear of sounding
> > cynical.
> Howard Long
> 

+++++++++++++++++++
"A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy
enough people to make it worth the effort." Herm Albright

-- John
John Jacobus, MS
Certified Health Physicist
e-mail:  crispy_bird at yahoo.com


		
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