[ RadSafe ] Re: DHS PLANNING SCENARIOS Executive Summaries

[Gerry Blackwood]

Tom, did not mean to point you out for anything.....guess it was just 
my frustration with these types of documents. However here are additions 
to your reply.....

Never skip a point.....and as far as Point One is concerned there are 
some additional comments I would Like to make. 

The noted extent of radiation at 3000 miles for a 10 kiloton nuke is 
rather slightly off.....yes its dependent on environmental conditions but 
unless detonation occurs during a Nor' East'er the extent of exposure 
as outlined is problematic..... 

A 10 kiloton nuke (ground blast lets not talk about an air burst) 
should have an effect starting at the epicenter of the blast up to a 
distance of approximately one third mile in which every structure will be 
destroyed with a 100% fatality rate. The second circle of destruction 
should extend up to three quarters of a mile from the epic center and would 
leave buildings partially destroyed with significant risk of a 
firestorm with a fatal radiation doses to anyone directly exposed to the blast. 
Most people will be left dead or seriously injured. A final circle 
reaching out 1 mile would be just ravaged by fires and radiation. Using NYC 
as an epic center the total dead on detonation should be estimated at 
600,000 to 1 million and after the blast effect and fire storm another 
100 to 300,000....3000 miles of radiation exposure? It should look more 
like a potential maybe for 20, 30, 40 miles dependent on the 
environmental conditions of that day. Effects on people will vary at this point. 
We  are not talking about a thermonuclear weapon here...... 

Now as two other radiation specialist on another list pointed out. One, 
"The only other thought I had was that they confused 3000-meters (1.86 
miles) with 3000-miles.  That would fit better, since the 3000-meter 
line is often used for these kind of evaluations." This is a valid 
point...which leads me to this conclusion if its true. This is a huge 
planning mistake. It not only wastes resources, time and money but adds more 
confusion than what reality mandates and what first responders need for 
training. 

The second point that was made and which I agree was "The USA has 
undertaken a full scale nuclear explosion of about 10 kiloton in 1945 in 
Hiroshima and a few days later another one (I do not remember the yield, 
but it must have been similar) at Nagasaki. The effects have been 
described in detail in the open literature, including not only the 
destruction, but also health effects."  Yes Little Boy and Fat Man are excellent 
examples of cause and effect of this type of devise. Yes we have tested 
devises of this yield in the desert of Nevada several times in the 
past....what 3000 miles? "SUPER SECRET NUKE TEST LINK! ALL BAD GUY'S DO NOT 
CLICK" http://nuclearfiles.org/revideos/filmindex2.html

Point Two..."They are vague concepts, not specific, what the public 
health system is will vary from place to place.  Part of the Target 
Capabilities analysis is to see what elements of the public health system a 
jurisdiction has in place or available via mutual aid."

The dirty little secret in the medical community is ...there is no such 
thing as a "Public Health System." Yes there are components of such in 
various parts of the Country but there is none when it comes to the 
entire Country. While vague concepts are not what is needed in any 
planning document. I know for a fact that we do threat assessments much 
differently than what is being projected here.  Each region of this Country 
faces varying degrees of threats to have one face plate or selected sets 
of threats does not serve any purpose. These threats need to be 
assessed by region and tailored to specific threats facing a region. We have 
had many natural disasters and drills whether they are terror related or 
haz-mat, and natural disasters so the individual regions know exactly 
where they stand already.

Point Three "Not sure that anyone has defined what we mean when we 
say "prevention" -- anyone who differs, please cite me the definition"

Prevention - (My definition) Seek out and locate enemy combatant(s) on 
both domestic and foreign shores and terminate their command with 
extreme prejudice. 

In the immortal words of General George S. Patton "Don't be a fool and 
die for your country. Let the other sonofabitch die for his." (In this 
case his Jihad).... 

Another definition from another counter-terrorism specialist...

"Prevention is what we do to avoid RESPONDING to terrorist incidents 
and picking up forensic pieces from 9/11 attacks.  It is not 
rocket-scientist and only a bureaucrat would think so. Any bureaucrat, or “first 
responder” who thinks the American people are going to be satisfied with 
more RESPONSE and no PREVENTION had better pull their heads out of 
their asses and start looking for a new line of work." 

Point Four.. "Not envisioned in the current versions.  In its original 
form, DHS was trying to assess how we as a "nation" would respond, e.g. 
how many bullhorns were needed for the chemical attack or how many 
tongue depressors were needed "as a nation" to respond to the scenarios.  
So if California had enough tongue depressors, we as a nation would be 
considered prepared without regard to how those tongue depressors would 
get to Florida or Pennsylvania.  A related question to yours is whether 
the responders from Boston would leave their jurisdiction unprotected 
without assurance that there was no more threat...."

If DHS by now three years after 911 does not know how we as a Nation 
will respond to a WMD they either are not talking with the other USG 
Agencies or are not learning from the drills we have had over the past 
three years. If bull horns and tongue depressors are what we are after then 
we are all dead....And yes more than likely the response will be 
localized until the attack is assessed. 

Point Five.. "The scenarios are disproportionate towards terrorism.  
There are 3 natural events, one cyber and 11 terror (going from memory).  
Why South Dakota needs to be prepared for a hurricane....  The National 
Preparedness Goal and supporting measures are supposed to be all 
hazards, yet they are really only terrorism.  There have been over 200 
federal disaster declarations since 9/11, not a single one for terrorism.  
While we may be totally prepared to respond to a 10 ton nuclear blast, we 
will not be prepared for the 100 year flood.  Not a great strategy 
considering the likelihood of each."

Yes they are disproportionate but... "There have been over 200 federal 
disaster declarations since 9/11, not a single one for terrorism." Some 
of the natural disasters are still under investigation. Again I repeat 
each region of this country faces different threats and we need to be 
prepared for all of the threats on a regional basis. The US Military war 
games both human and non human events. Yes gang even invasions from 
Mars... (makes you wonder sometimes). They do this why? It's not because 
they are bored..... No one plan will ever cover the matrix for the 
threats we face and drilling on something like this is dangerous. Yes not a 
great strategy.

Point Six...."See prior point.  Plus, power outages don't kill or 
cripple like the terror scenarios do.... but are they more likely?"

"Plus, power outages don't kill or cripple like the terror scenarios 
do".... Start adding up all the deaths caused by power outages due to 
fire, storms, floods, etc and etc...The last one in the Northeast we were 
lucky....but does death need to be the only measurement for a terrorist 
attack? How about an economic attack... How much money was lost during 
the NE Blackout? How much money did we lose going to Code Orange 
because some screw-loose sitting in a Internet cafe in Lebanon wrote junk on 
some website? Let's see it costs the USG some $70 Billion a week to 
protect the major cities when we go to Code Orange. How many weeks were we 
at Code Orange? What was the total costs? Quarter Trillion? Yes we keep 
forgetting those silly economic attacks..... Just like the way to fight 
terrorism is to kill its "finances".... The way to cause it is attack 
the money...cause disruption. But we all know this right?

Point Seven...."From what I know of east coast and tsunamis, this isn't 
a realistic possibility due to the topography of the ocean bottom and 
distances involved."

This is as about as realistic as many of the scenarios that are in the 
current plan....BTW it is a actual scenario.....


Number Eight...(There is no mention of attacks on LNG/LPG carriers.  Or 
wildfires.) "See prior comments on the scenarios being limited to 
terrorism."

Yes indeed and see prior DHS/FBI/INTERPOL/USCG/DOD/MI6 Threat Analysis 
and warnings..... All of these are realistic scenarios......


Number Eight...."This is the funding model for the future, getting us 
ready to face these scenarios without regard to the actual risk...."

Without regard to actual risk? If this is true then what are people 
thinking here? How much we after? $87 Billion? If thats the case DHS would 
get the money faster if they just skewered the intelligence. Lets try 
doing a funding model that fits reality instead of some hollywood movie. 
Besides of all the drills we have had and of the after action reports I 
have seen they all show the same deficiencies basically. My problem 
with all of this is when the hell are we going to start "FUNDING" and 
fixing the deficiencies we all ready know about...... 

Its been over three years since 911. Yes there are many people in the 
USG and First Responder Community that place their lives on the line 
everyday. There are mid-level executives in local, state and federal 
agencies that could fix the problems we have with their eyes closed. The 
problem is they are not empowered to do so. While none of the drills or 
plans additionally take into consideration the private  emergency 
responder companies....ie... The 
Hulchers....AMPOL....NRC.....SWS....Westons.....
Clean Harbors... OH Materials....etc..etc and etc..... They do this 
type of work everyday.......uh....who actually did the US Senate 
Anthrax Decontamination? The USEPA? 

We as a Country have some great hurdles in front of us. We are at war 
in Iraq... We are fighting the GWOT.. we have economic and trades 
problems, energy problems, health care problems....security 
problems.....etc..etc.. and etc...and this past weekend the US Congress met in an 
extraordinary weekend session and passed legislation over what? Terri 
Schiavo? Someone from that so-called Public Health System of ours please rush 
to Capitol Hill and see if the United States Congress is suffering from 
a pandemic of cranial rectal inversion!? 

I don't know about anyone else but this security theater stuff has to 
come to a halt. Air Port Security is something that really irks me. 
Whats next all passengers disrobe and put on Tyvek suits and booties before 
boarding? The NYPD Cornish says...1000 officers are trained in 
terrorism. What he does not say is that these officers received a one day 
course in terrorism. That is like sayings I spent the day in a F-14 flight 
simulator and was awarded the nickname "Bolter" and now I am ready for 
real carrier landings..... He continues and say that the department has 
overhauled the Intelligence section. This is true with former agency 
analysts....to the best of my knowledge there is not one agency 
operations officer in that group or anyone who has run agents or cases. He 
states that NYPD detectives are assigned to DIA. This could be a good thing 
the intel weenies at DIA would learn something from a NYPD street 
cop..... I have listened to a Deputy Cornish say he thinks that Atlas Drills
prevent terrorism.....I have talked with some of the guy's on the 
Hercules Squad about their RDD Training.... Its all evidence 
collection..... Would someone please remind folk we are up against UBL and AQ not the 
Marx Brothers.....

Lastly.... Does anyone know what the term OPSEC means? These types of 
documents need to be done properly and then classed FOUO or Law 
Enforcement Sensitive. Placed on a secure site with access limited to those in 
the community. Not posted as open source whereas some chowder-head 
reporter who knows zip about this subject gets a hold of it and writes an 
article in the NY Times which causes more public skepticism and 
stupidity. Matter of fact we need to start having people go to jail for leaking 
classified material or taking documents off of secured sites and 
posting them onto the Internet. This includes telling the press about the 
deficiencies. We will not lose the GWOT because of lack of resources, 
money and or know-how.... We will lose it because of stupidity. 

We not only owe first responders a better plan of attack but we owe the 
American Public a Safer Country







"Dante once said that the hottest places in hell are reserved for those who in a period of moral crisis maintain their neutrality."