[ RadSafe ] Re: uranium trioxide gas exposure patterns (was:...RE:Gardner Sellafield cluster)

[Ivor Surveyor]

>James Salsman  quoted from a paper by  P. Gustavsson, M. Talbäck, A. 
>Lundin, B. Lagercrantz,
>P.-E. Gyllestad, and L. Fornell in "Incidence of cancer among
>Swedish military and civil personnel involved in UN missions
>in the Balkans 1989­99," Occupational and Environmental
>Medicine, vol. 61 (2004) pp. 171-173:
>   http://oem.bmjjournals.com/cgi/content/full/61/2/171
It seems to me that the authors do not draw any conclusion of cause 
and.effect from their paper. Numbers of cancers are small.  For all sites: 
observed 26 expected 21.8.  Even in the case of testicular cancer, (which 
as the authors state is common), there were 8 cases given an expected of 
4.3. further the authors are clear that statistical significance is reached.

In fact they state "The study gives no support for the hypothesis that UN 
service in the Balkans could lead to haemato-lymphatic malignancies."

I would like to make one other point,  The assignment of a causal 
relationship in medicine is very difficult, and in this process correlation 
is only one of many factors to be decided. Robert Koch about 120 years ago 
addressed this problem.  As did Austin Bradford Hill in a well known 
address to the Royal society of Medicine in 1965. Recently Phillips and 
Goodman (Epidemiol Perspectives and Innovations 2004;1:1-11)  make the 
point that the Bradford Hill criterion is not " a cook book " recipe for 
causation.  Scientific judgment is required.  I suggest that the balance of 
judgement is against a causal role for DU in human disease.

Ivor Surveyor [ isurveyor at vianet.net.au ]