Re: Risk Calculation Analogies

[jrcamero@facstaff.wisc.edu (John Cameron)]

Dear Susan,
         You wrote ">I am looking for new and interesting ways to explain
how radiation risks are determined. I'm particularly interested in
analogies which relate risk calculations to common, everday, ordinary
items. I'm looking for more than  just relating radiation exposure risks to
activities like driving a car, skydiving, etc. I'm looking for analogies to
explain how risks are calculated (or, extrapolated) from exposure data."

        My answer will be a  disappointment to you. There are no radiation
risks worth mentioning for ordinary people at any exposures they will
receive during their lifetimes..However, there is plenty to explain - read
on.
         (Background) I spent my entire career (since 1948) working with
radiation in one form or another - six years in nuclear physics research,
development and teaching and over 35 years in medical applications of
radiation. In 1958 when I went into medical physics at the U. of
Wis-Madison I thought the most important thing a physicist could do would
be to reduce radiation doses in diagnostic radiology.(They needed reducing
but much more important problems, such as QC were not yet visible to me
then.) 
        I used to believe that radiaton was dangerous. It is in big doses -
say 1 Gy whole body in a short time. However, even then the risk is not
huge. I'd take 1 Gy rather than go sky diving or hang-gliding. If 1 Gy is
spread over decades then there is no evidence that it is harmful - it may
even be beneficial for some people. . For example, radium dial painters
with skeletal doses below 10 Gy of alphas (200 Sv equivalent dose or 24 Sv
effective dose) had NO radiation induced cancer, such as osteogenic sarcoma
or leukemia! (So much for leukemia being easy to induce with radiation.)  
         The radium dial painters who didn't get radiaion induced cancer -
98.7% of them - lived longer on the average than their age matched
controls. So did many of the a-bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
How many HPs know that the a-bomb survivors are living longer on the
average, despite about  400 radiation induced cancer deaths, than unexposed
Japanese? 
        A good recent reference about health effects of radium is RADIUM IN
HUMANS - A REVIEW OF US STUDIES by Bob Rowland published by Argonne Nat.
Lab Feb. 1995 (dated Sept. 1994). A still valid reference is RADIUM IN MAN
by Robley Evans Health Physics Nov. 1974 pages 497-510.  Another good
reference is HEALTH EFFECTS OF LOW LEVEL RADIATION  by Sohei Kondo,
co-published in the US by Med. Phys Publ (MPP) of Madison, WI (800)
442-5778. Chap. 4 gives a lot of interesting data. If you want an
elementary book suitable for science teachers in the primary and secondary
schools read THE GOOD NEWS ABOUT RADIATION  by John Lenihan, also from MPP.
It describes many of the wonderful uses of radiation in science, medicine
and industry. It also discusses the biological effects of radiation.
        A book for secondary schools and adults to be out in a few months
is RADIATION IN EVERYDAY LANGUAGE  by Bjorn Wahlstrom. MPP hopes to have it
out  this fall. I think it is excellent but then I'm prejudiced - I am the
unpaid acquisition editor of MPP..Another radiation related book to be out
in a couple months is "MY LIFE WITH RADIATION - HIROSHIMA PLUS 50 YEARS by
Ralph Lapp who was in it from 1940. 
        Susan, The bottom line to your question of radiation risks is that
for doses below 10 cGy there are no risks and there  may be benefits. For
exampe for the a-bomb survivors in this dose group had about 100 fewer
cancers than the unexposed controls. We can't gurarantee that there isn't
some person who is very sensitive to radiation  for some reason for whom a
small dose could be fatal. There is no way to find out and it is pointless
to look. There are always rare cases e.g., last year 8 US children died
from polio vaccination. Since polio is "extinct" in the US, should we stop
vaccinating? Probably not - polio could invade from a country where it is
not extinct.
        Basically the world has been given a bad case of radiophobia by
scientists with good intentions (members of ICRP, NCRP, BEIR V, etc.) who
keep pushing the linear, no-threshold hypothesis despite the huge amount of
contradictory data.They also push ALARA even though there is no scientific
evidence to support the idea at low doses.  They feel they are being
prudent. What they are doing is scaring people and as a by-product wasting
billions of $ that could better be used for education, health care, etc.
Another less obvious by-product is the under utilization of nuclear power. 
        . Following Chernobyl (1986) the IAEA estimates there were over
100,000 additional abortions in Western Europe from women who feared  a
deformed fetus. That is many more humans than died from radiation,
including the victims of the atomic bombs - most of whom died from blast
and heat.  (There is no evidence among the 90,000 children and
grandchildren of Japanese a-bomb survivors of an increase in mutations.) 
        I realize that HPs earn a living based on radiophobia. They will
still have a job to do for many years but they should help educate the
science teachers to give the kids the facts - radiaiton saves many lives
and rarely, if ever, causes a death.  The deaths in Chernobyl were
unfortunate but not the catastrophe of Bophal, which most people will not
even remember - unless you are from India.. 
        Our major health problems are still smoking, poor nutrition, too
many people, too little electricity, too little medical care, too much
drinking, driving, homicide, etc. Radiation doesn't make the list except in
the minds of people who believe the "experts."  I am nearing the head of
the "check-out  line" to leave this world (at age 73) but until then I hope
to help educate the public that radiation is probably one of our greatest
gifts from nature despite its evil side of nuclear weapons.
        I have made several  video tape lectures about radiation, which I
will provide at cost ($10 including shipping) to anyone who wants them -
they even include some jokes.  I give talks to various groups from school
children, to HPS chapters to university physics colloquia on the topic "Is
radiation as dangerous as they say?" I appreciate receiving my travel
expenses but I sometimes pay my own way. As a Scotsman I  accept honoraria.
It helps me support the publication of books for the public about 
radiation. If you are in Boston at the meeting in a week or two, look for
me in the MPP  booth (1302-1304) radsafe@romulus.ehs.uiuc.edu
radsafe@romulus.ehs.uiuc.edu in the AAPM area, no purchase is necessary! 
        I hope some of you who have read this far will join me in the
radiation educationl arena. Thanks for reading this. Let me know if I can
answer any other "tough questions."  Best wishes, John Cameron

        
        




John Cameron, 2571 Porter Rd., P.O. Box 405, Lone Rock, WI 53556-0405
Phones: Voice: 608/583-2160; FAX 608/583-2269. NOTE:During the winter
months Von & I will be at our winter home near the U.of Florida at 2678 SW
14th Dr., Gainesville, FL 32608 - Phone not yet installed. My e-mail will
be forwarded.