Re: Risk Calculation Analogies

["USHINO, TOSH" <ushinot@songs.sce.com>]

     I don't know if this is what you had in mind, but...
     Some years ago, I read someone compare extrapolating risk from low 
     dose of radiation from high dose data in this manner:  Assume that a 
     100 mph typhoon causes a $50,000 damage to a home.  Extrapolating from 
     that, would it be reasonable to say that a 1 mph breeze could cause a 
     $500 damage?
     
     Tosh Ushino


______________________________ Reply Separator _________________________________
Subject: Risk Calculation Analogies
Author:  radsafe@romulus.ehs.uiuc.edu at internet
Date:    7/14/95 1:40 PM


I am looking for new and interesting ways to explain how radiation risks are 
determined. I'm particularly interested in analogies which relate risk 
calculations to common, everday, ordinary items. I'm looking for more than 
just relating radiation exposure risks to activities like driving a car, 
skydiving, etc. I'm looking for analogies to explain how risks are 
calculated (er, extrapolated) from exposure data.
     
I've heard the analogy comparing effects of taking a hundred aspirin all at 
once, and from that data determining the expected effects of taking one 
aspirin a day for a hundred days (though this analogy is somewhat lacking). 
 Any creative ideas out there?