Re: Risk Calculation Analogies

[jgbarnes@ix.netcom.com (JAMES BARNES)]

Not to rain on any parades, but. . . .

Our PR consultant INSISTS that risk analogies actually:

    a)  Aren't understood by the "person in the street"

    b)  Actually worsen the "outrage" factor involved in the perception 
that you (you big corporate/university/government bully) are doing 
ANYTHING that could POSSIBLY harm him or her.

    c)  Promote the perception that you are trying to flim-flam your 
way around the fact that you are polluting the air and water (you big 
corporate/university/government bully)

That being said, as a resident of LA, I always liked the "freeway" 
analogy of "you took a 1 in 100 chance of killing yourself on the 
freeway tonight, so you could come here and have me tell you that the 
chances are 1 in a million that the releases from our site could harm 
you.  Let's all have a cigarette and think about that for a minute."

PR suggests getting the public involved early, open information 
exchange, etc.  My interpretation is that the public has to know and 
like you before they will buy what you say about risk.  The stats alone 
don't really address the issue, which is emotional.

This isn't so true for workers, IF you emphasize that they are going to 
make a conscious decision ("informed consent") to expose themselves to 
radiation.  The general public perceives that it never really gets that 
choice, thus the outrage factor is key.

If there are any PR specialists listening in, I'd like to hear their 
comments on these points.

Jim Barnes, CHP
RSO
Rockwell International, Rocketdyne Division


>Subject: Risk Calculation Analogies
>Author:  radsafe@romulus.ehs.uiuc.edu at internet
>Date:    7/14/95 1:40 PM
>
>
>I am looking for new and interesting ways to explain how radiation 
risks are 
>determined. I'm particularly interested in analogies which relate risk 

>calculations to common, everday, ordinary items. I'm looking for more 
than 
>just relating radiation exposure risks to activities like driving a 
car, 
>skydiving, etc. I'm looking for analogies to explain how risks are 
>calculated (er, extrapolated) from exposure data.
>     
>I've heard the analogy comparing effects of taking a hundred aspirin 
all at 
>once, and from that data determining the expected effects of taking 
one 
>aspirin a day for a hundred days (though this analogy is somewhat 
lacking). 
> Any creative ideas out there?
>
>