Re: Reqeust for Kerala Control Data

[sandy_perle@email.fpl.com]

     With respect to the many comments that because personal observations 
     of radiation induced illnesses haven't been seen, the conclusion drawn 
     is that there is no causal relationship of radiation exposure (even at 
     5 rem/year) and illness. I'll summarize from the OJ Trial, that the 
     fact that something isn't "seen" doesn't mean that it isn't there. 
     
     To arrive at any conclusion based on data would require a significant 
     epidemiological study . As we are aware, many have been done, be it 
     the ORNL study, Hanford Site study and the Japanese survivors. The 
     problem with many of those studies is that they are based on high 
     doses and the inability to eliminate other causal factors of cancers, 
     such as lifestyle and heredity. To determine any correlation at the 
     lower doses would be a monumental task. One would say that the study 
     should be performed, even though it would be very costly, since many 
     are spending large sums of dollars currently to remain below 
     regulatory limits. 
     
     Statistics is interesting, in that with motivation one can conclude 
     anything they want to. Just chose the sample population, do the 
     calculations, don't like the results, thrown in some outlier 
     confidence limits, eliminate the data and bingo, the results that were 
     desired are miraculously concluded.
     
     The current system works, exposures are lower than ever, work is being 
     accomplished, and I differ with many that we are spending exorbitant 
     amounts of money to accomplish this. I don't believe that NCRP, ICRP, 
     BEIR and other distinguished scientists have a hidden agenda behind 
     the various reports on radiation dose and negative results. 
     
     I suppose the argument is interesting, but before we take that leap of 
     faith to unravel the very foundation of what we have been teaching as 
     well as implementing for oh so many years, we better have some damn 
     good data behind us. We in the power plant industry have already faced 
     the training issues involving the TEDE concept, reduced respiratory 
     protection program, reduced medical physicals, etc. with the 
     implementation of less conservative regulations and guidance. The 
     plain fact is, a majority of radiation workers just don't believe us 
     anymore, when we begin to minimize the risks of radiation exposure. 
     What do you believe that they will think if we ever promote and even 
     contemplate implementing a program where any dose < 5 rem/yr. is 
     considered acceptable without any intervention by those who are 
     responsible for ensuring the health and welfare of the working 
     population, as well as those in the general public?
     
     
     Sandy Perle
     Supervisor Health Physics
     Florida Power and Light Company
     Nuclear Division
     
     (407) 694-4219 Office
     (407) 694-3706 Fax
     
     sandy_perle@email.fpl.com


______________________________ Reply Separator _________________________________
Subject: Reqeust for Kerala Control Data
Author:  radsafe@romulus.ehs.uiuc.edu at Internet-Mail
Date:    10/25/95 8:34 AM


Response to R. Kathren and J. Muckerheide on linear hypothesis.

RK> . . . in the Kerala State of India, an increased incidence of
  > Down's syndrome and chromosome aberrations has been reported.  

JM> I'm intrigued by the stretch that goes into trying to demonstrate effects in
  > the face of much more substantial data that shows no or negative effects. 

The theory is: "less than 5 rem has no effect".

Either:
 1. the theory is disproved by Kerala data, or
 2. the theory is correct and the Kerala data have a non-radiation cause.

JM argues:

JM> "Nobel Laureate Dr. Rosalyn Yalow reports . . .
  > . . . The lack of Down's syndrome in the particular town used as a
  > control population is a statistical small-number aberration."

I am not convinced by a Nobel judgement.  I will be convinced if a 
non-radiation difference between Kerala and control can be shown to 
have caused the 12 to 0 cases.  Does such data exist?  Is there a
non-radiation difference to explain the Kerala:control difference in 
Down Syndrome?

Or, is this to be left unresolved?

regards,

Andrew Hodgdon
hodgdon@yankee.com

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