Public and LOTTO

["Dale E. Boyce" <dale@radpro.uchicago.edu>]

I invoked the public playing LOTTO in my previous post and
would like to carry it a little further.

Suppose you were a highly paid professional with the ficticious
job of Local Economic Advisor.  You are asked to advise members
of the public on personal financial decisions as a part of your
job.  You are asked for advise on whether or not to play the
LOTTO.  It behaves according to the linear no threshold model.
It is you responsibility to give the individual your best
advice as it will effect that person's economic welfare.  You
may or may not need to factor in societal benefits, but for
arguments sake there is a LOTTO that helps pay for the school system
by taking a per centage of the pot, and another one that pays out
100% so that the expected return is better.

Now the person comes to you and asks the questions in the following
way which you are required to answer. 
"If I spend one dollar on a LOTTO ticket, will I win the LOTTO
this week?" yes/no/maybe
"If I spend ten dollars on  LOTTO tickets, will I win the LOTTO
this week?" yes/no/maybe
"If I spend 100 dollars on  LOTTO tickets, will I win the LOTTO
this week?" yes/no/maybe
"If I spend my whole paycheck on  LOTTO tickets, will I win the LOTTO
this week?" yes/no/maybe
"If I spend my whole life savings on  LOTTO tickets, will I win the LOTTO
this week?" yes/no/maybe

Remember you are responsible for his economic welfare, but as a
professional you are charged also to respond with the "best" answer. 

Enjoy

Dale Boyce
dale@radpro.uchicago.edu