Re: Did A-Bomb exposure lead to better survival ?

[John Goldsmith <gjohn@bgumail.bgu.ac.il>]

	In searching for good news to tell the public, John Cameron must 
have been pretty careful not to read all the news.  In its recent publication
"Effects of A-Bomb Radiation on the Human Body"  Shigematsu I, (Ed), 1995,
Harwood Academic publishers/ Bunkodo Co. Ltd, Tokyo, from the Hiroshima 
International Council for Medical Care if the Radiation-Exposed,  
(Shigematsu is with the Radiation Effects Research Foundation)
we find the following  Table 2 in the Chapter on Aging and Life Span 
:Shimizu Y and Kato, H, are the chapter authors. (p. 327)
            Comparisons of Risks of Cancer and non-malignant Disease

                                   Relative Risks 
                                    at 2 Gy        Excess Deaths/Gy
                                                 per 10,000 per-yr
                                                                             
Non-malignant Dis. 
Total                           1.06 (1.02, 1.09)    1.18 (0.51,1.19) 
 Under 40 ATB, Obs. 1966-85     1.19 (1.10, 1.29)    1.69 (0.90,2.62) 

Cancer       Total              1.78 (1.64,1.92)    10.00 ( 8.36,11.8)

	Let us as scientists quit trying to slant the news and 
be faithful to the best evidence we can transmit to the 
public.  
	The footnotes to the table read" (  ) 90 % 
Confidence limits. ATB at time of bombing. and N.B. 
Estimates are based on the linear risk model for cancer, 
and the linear risk model with a threshold value (1.4 Gy) 
for non-malignant disease."                   

	John Goldsmith, M.D. Professor of Epidemiology,
       Ben Gurion University, < Gjohn@BGUMAIL.bgu.ac.il>