Dr. Goldman, Science 3/29; CNN Presents,

[JMUCKERHEIDE@delphi.com]

Radsafers,

Former HPS President Dr. Marvin Goldman has published the subject article,
"Cancer Risk of Low-Level Exposure", which starts, "It is time to
scientifically challenge the old tenet stating that cancer risk is always
proportional to dose, no matter how small." 

I'm surprized to have not seen it referred to here (even from Dr. Goldman :-) 

Dr. Goldman carefully steps through the areas of knowledge that show the lack
of  biological and epidemiological basis for the "linear model", ie, from the
Japanese survivor data and other more highly-exposed populations, to natural
variations in radiation exposure of large populations; he notes the "support
to the concept of hormesis, a beneficial effect" in some epidemiological data; 
and the current knowledge of the multi-step mechanisms of cancer induction
that are incompatible with a stochastic process and a linear response. 

He notes that "Risk may be the integrated sum of the failure probabilities of
all the steps. Thus, the cancer risk curve may prove to be an S or sigmoid
curve. Our limited data, shortsightedly, only one order of magnitude wide, are 
seemingly straight-line segments of that curve."  He notes the limited
variations in sensitivity of groups to radiation exposure, and the orders of
magnitude difference between the data that shows an increase in cancer risk,
which enable and justify re-examination of the current untenable basis for
radiation protection standards. 

We should note that our "shortsighted" data range is the direct result of "the 
research not done" as managed by the rad protection policy management process
for funding, and more importantly defunding, areas of research over the last
30 years. However, basic biology data meeting with some of the limited
radiobiology work allowed, has been showing the way to prove the underlying
biology. 

Dr. Goldman references the important UNSCEAR 1994 report, that Dr. Jaworowski
noted took 12 years to get out of UNSCEAR (over the strenuous efforts of the
US, UK, and other national rad protection policy objectors - see also the
extremely powerful monograph by UNSCEAR and ICRP Member, Dr. Gunnar Walinder). 
 

Dr. Goldman references also the excellent treatment of this entire subject,
and presentation of the underlying dichotomy between the data and the
unjustified policies in the evacuation of the Chernobyl populations, by Prof
Emeritus Dr. Sohie Kondo. Anyone interested in the least, and wanting to speak 
intelligently to this subject should read this book, even if you don't want
to, or can, read the 2 chapters on the biology and Dr. Kondo's internationally 
highly regarded treatment of the biology and the consistent stimulated
response seen in the epidemiological data in the dose ranges of interest. 


Note also that the program series "CNN Presents"  1-hour special, "Chernobyl:
Legacy of a Meltdown" reported on the biological studies by US biologists
demonstrating the vigorous health of the flora and fauna living in the highly
contaminated acreage in the shadow of the reactor. They  note thresholds for
biological evidence of exposure as "about 100 mrem/day", and that more highly
exposed populations are healthy even though, as the mass of laboratory
research and highly-exposed human data show, they have cellular indications of 
the radiation effects. 

The biologists commented on the minimal funding that is being committed. There 
was a woman from US DOE whose name I can't remember who also stated strongly
that the biological evidence "is revolutionary" in our understanding of
radiation effects. Obviously not revolutioonary enough for DOE to commit some
of the $100million going into "dose reconstruction health effects studies".
Does anyone know who she was? I did not write down her name and now don't
remember. 

Of course the perjorative language by the media and the scientists on
radiation effects, unsupported by any data, and reference to the fears, is
endemic to the presentation, even to the ludicrous statement that the
sarcophagus could explode with an even greater disaster than the original
accident !?  :-) Does anyone know if there is any CNN access to the
transcript? They were only selling the videotape, and they said 6-8 weeks. 

Thanks.

Regards, Jim Muckerheide
jmuckerheide@delphi.com
Radiation, Science, and Health