Chernobyl in Perspective

[baker@nucst11.neep.wisc.edu]

I had the following article published in the local newspaper.  The 
title was their choice not mine.  I am not even sure if they meant
it to read the way many people have read it.  Sources for the numbers 
quoted were primarily the NEA report "Chernobyl: Ten Years On" and 
the summaries released from the recent IAEA conference in Vienna.

Michael Baker ... baker@nucst11.neep.wisc.edu


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NUCLEAR POWER ALL RIGHT: Chernobyl Accident Blown Out of Proportion
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	As the 10th anniversary of the Chernobyl accident 
approaches this month there have been quite a few news 
stories regarding the public health consequences of the 
world's worst nuclear accident.  
	These reports frequently quote numbers as high, or 
higher than, 100,000 deaths due to the accident.  But, 
scientific studies by the International Atomic Energy 
Agency, World Health Organization, and the OECD Nuclear 
Energy Agency have not supported these numbers, which are 
usually released by a politician rather than a scientist 
or physician.
	An examination of WHO data reveals that three people 
died due to the blast's immediate effects and 28 people 
died due to excessive radiation exposure that they received 
while fighting the fire that ignited immediately following 
the blast.  Since that time, WHO estimates that 11 more 
people have died due to radiation received from the Chernobyl 
accident.  That's a total of 42 deaths, tragic, but quite a 
bit smaller than 100,000.
	The only other health effect attributed to the accident 
is an increase in the number of cases of childhood thyroid 
cancer.  Current estimates are that 400 to 600 children are 
effected.  Reports on the cure rate of this particular cancer 
are conflicting at this time, but past data indicates 90% to 
95% of these cancer cases can be treated successfully.  Other 
press reports of increased leukemia and other cancers are so 
far unconfirmed by the credible scientific data.
	Some press stories have reported 125,000 deaths in 
Ukraine due to the Chernobyl accident.  In May 1995, Dr. Keith 
Baverstock, a radiation specialist with WHO, called these news 
reports "a totally irresponsible kind of reporting."  He went 
on to explain that 125,000 is the total number of deaths due 
to all causes since 1988 in Ukraine.  Unless someone can 
explain the connection between traffic accidents and radiation, 
the press reports are clearly in error.
	Although the Chernobyl accident has caused the tragic 
deaths of dozens of people, it should be kept in perspective 
with other industrial accidents and energy sources.  
	For example, the Bhopal Union Carbide pesticide plant 
accident in 1984 killed more than 3000 people and injured 
100,000.  Also in 1984, a liquefied butane storage facility 
in Mexico City and a gasoline pipeline in Brazil both exploded 
and killed more than 900 people.  
	In 1987, an oil tanker and passenger ship collided 
killing 1600 people.  Also, burning coal has been estimated 
to kill tens of thousands of people every year due to increased 
air pollution.  
	But these incidents, with larger health consequences 
than Chernobyl, faied to grab the attention of the media and 
public like the Chernobyl accident continues to do.  I would 
venture a guess that lethal air pollution doesn't make quite 
as good a headline as does "deadly radiation."
	The Chernobyl accident certainly was not an 
insignificant tragedy.  It should not, however, be used to 
justify the vilification of nuclear power.  Reasoned scientific 
study is revealing that that nuclear power is far from the most 
dangerous of all potentialenergy sources.	
		All industries and energy sources will involve some 
accidental risks.  These should be considered when the people 
decide where to buy their electrical power from.  Reasonable 
decisions cannot be made, however, when the press contniues to 
print unsupportable numbers about nuclear accidents
 	Nuclear power does not contribute to air pollution, 
greenhouse gases and global warming, or acid rain.  It is an 
economic, clean energy source that should not be ignored as 
we continue to deplete the world's resources of fossil fuels.

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