Re: Stirring the pot

[bflood@SLAC.Stanford.EDU (Bob Flood)]

>This may be a good strategy - fighting public hysteria with junk science 
>(global warming arguments).

The learned Mr. Jones is quite correct. As a former weather forecaster, I
can state with some authority that that a community of weather professionals
that cannot predict with much accuracy what the free air temperature will 2
hours from now is not likely to be any more accurate in predicting the
global temperature for decades to come based on speculation about carbon
monoxide/dioxide emissions. While the "greenhouse gases" idea is probably a
good theory, it is only a good theory, with no hard evidence at this time to
support (or disprove) it. Kind of like the hole in the ozone layer - the
hole was already there when mankind began making measurements of ozone at
high altitude. Scientists that didn't known why it was there immediately
theorized that man caused (because they couldn't think of a natural cause?)
and blamed Freon because Freon was found in the neighborhood. There may
indeed be a because and effect relationship between Freon and the hole in
the ozone layer, but the hole may be a natural event, or may always be
there. No one knows. No one knows if the atmosphere's effect on heat
exchange is really affected by manmade COx emissions.

Having said all that, I think that doing something about Freon emissions was
prudent and justified owing to the potential catastrophic worldwide impact
on human health if Freon really does harm the ozone layer. Perhaps shifting
from fossil to nuclear falls into the same category: given the potential
consequences if the theory is correct, and the know effects of the other
emissions associated with dirt-burning power plants (sulfur and  nitrous
oxides), wouldn't it be prudent not to fool around with heat balance in the
atmosphere?

Bottom Line: I don't think that shifting away from fossil fuel power
production to increased reliance on nuclear will ever be considered a
realistic option by policy makers, politicians, or the business
decisionmakers in the utility industry until the waste dispoal question is
solved and a viable system is in place and functioning.

Bob Flood
Stanford Linear Accelerator Center
(415) 926-3793     bflood@slac.stanford.edu
Unless otherwise noted, all opinions are mine alone.