Re: Linear Hypothesis IS the Cause of Public Fear of Radiation

[Keith Welch <welch@CEBAF.GOV>]

At 11:31 AM 10/9/96 -0500, you wrote:

>The LNTH IS the cause of the public fear, 

I disagree.

>or, rather, the corruption of the LNTH idea is the cause.

I agree. 

People are willing and able to use stochastic risk models as the basis of
evaluating risk.  Risks of driving, flying, smoking, drowning, can all be
evaluated this way.  But it's the corruption of the idea that causes the
problem.  People know that they are taking a risk every time they get into a
car- they see the statistics on fatalities.  However they also "know" that
getting into a car ONCE and driving to the grocery store involves much less
risk than driving 50 miles a day, every day for 50 years.  Nobody would
agree with a preposterous assertion that the two examples are equally
dangerous.  Yes, they know that death CAN occur on that very first trip, but
it's extremely(?) unlikely.

Somehow this logic does not survive when it comes to radiation (or some
other nasties that they're scared to death of).  The risk is linear, but the
slope of the line is zero, and it lies at 100%!!!

I think it's due in part to the fact that with the car example, (and other
common "everyday" things) they have a physical thing - every time they get
home alive, they've proved the point that just because there's a risk, it
does not mean that participating in the activity guarantees a negative
outcome.  In fact, they build up confidence over a long period of time, that
odds are, they WON'T  suffer injury from participating.

The other part is of course the issue of a risk that they are subjected to
involuntarilly.  People generally react negatively to this regardless of the
benefits or proof that the risk is "negligable" - logic goes out the door.
Keith Welch
Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility
Newport News VA
welch@cebaf.gov