Bernie Cohen's test of LNT

[Ken Mossman <icklm@asuvm.inre.asu.edu>]

Radsafers:

It would appear that one test of the validity of Bernie's conclusions would be to look at the relationship between cigarette consumption and lung cancer mortality. According to the American Cancer Society, cigarettes explain 80-90% of lung cancer deaths. There is over 40 years of epidemiological research (Hammond and others) clearly establishing a positive dose-response between smoking (as measured by cigarette packs per day) and lung cancer mortality. I know Bernie has used cigarette consumption data to correct for smoking as a confounding variable in his analysis, but I have not seen a separate analysis of  the relationship between lung cancer deaths versus cigarette consumption.

It would seem to me that if the resulting analysis is consistent with other epidemiological studies (particularly with regard to the slope of the dose-response curve), Bernie's conclusions about a negative correlation between radon and lung cancer deaths would be bolstered (not necessarily proven). However, if the analysis of cigarette consumtion versus lung cancer mortality using Bernie's data are inconsistent with previous findings, that would invalidate Bernie's conclusions.

Ken Mossman (ken.mossman@asu.edu) 
Kenneth L. Mossman
Professor of Health Physics
Arizona State University
Tempe, Arizona 85287-2701
Voice: 602-965-0584
FAX: 602-991-4998
E-mail: ken.mossman@asu.edu