Re: Query to Roger Clarke

["Otto G. Raabe" <ograabe@ucdavis.edu>]

May 8, 1997

Dear Wade:

Please tell me where in ICRP-60 I can find a statement that says: "We cannot
say whether the model (LNT) overestimates the risks of exposure to low levels of
radiation or not, and so, while the real risks may be zero we are going
to be on the safe side and use the LNT."

The possibility that "a single event at the cellular level can give rise to
cancer" is irrelevant. Surely the probability is not zero. The relevant
question is rather whether a single event at the cellular level has
one-millionth the probability of causing cancer as does one million such
cellular events.

Best regards,

Otto 

At 11:24 PM 5/7/97 -0500, you wrote:
>Group:
>I think we're all aware that UNSCEAR, BEIR, ICRP, and NCRP (UBIN) have
>consistently inserted a disclaimer in their various pronouncements.
>
>It always seems to go something like this; "We cannot say whether the
>model (LNT) overestimates the risks of exposure to low levels of
>radiation or not, and so, while the real risks may be zero we are going
>to be on the safe side and use the LNT."
>
>This puts those who wish to challenge whether risks are associated with
>small doses in the position of having to prove that they are not.
>Unfortunately, proving a negative is difficult, if not impossible.
>
>I think it would be better to take Roger Clarke (ICRP Chair), and
>others, at their word when they say, "a single event at the cellular
>level can give rise to cancer", and ask them to prove that this is true.
>
>I wonder what evidence they would offer ?
>
>Best wishes.
>
>-- 
>Wade
>
>mailto:hwade@triax.com
>
>H.Wade Patterson
>1116 Linda Lane
>Lakeview OR 97630
>ph 541 947-4974
>
>
>
		*****************************************************
		Prof. Otto G. Raabe, Ph.D., CHP
		Institute of Toxicology & Environmental Health (ITEH)
		University of California, Davis, CA 95616
		Phone: 916-752-7754     FAX: 916-758-6140
		E-Mail: ograabe@ucdavis.edu
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