Re: Anti-Nuclear Visit

["J. J. Rozental" <josrozen@netmedia.net.il>]

At 06:50 PM 9/11/97 -0500, you wrote:
>Dear Radsafers:

>It also states that Chernobyl is estimated to have caused over 140,000 fatal
>cancers and an equal number of nonfatal cancers.  I know this has been
>discussed on Radsafe before, but can someone give me a more reasonable
>estimate, with documentation?

>Liz
> ------------------------
>| Elizabeth Brackett, CHP|
>|  Sr. Health Physicist  |
>|    MJW Corporation     |
>|    (330) 644-3591      |
>|  brackett@bright.net   |
> ------------------------
========================================
Dear Liz, please GO TO
http://www.iaea.or.at/worldatom/thisweek/preview/chernobyl

                          INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE
               		  ONE DECADE AFTER CHERNOBYL:
		SUMMING UP THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE ACCIDENT 

The technical symposium featured eight separate topical sessions on the
range of social, health, and environmental subjects. Topics included clinically
observed health effects; thyroid effects; longer term health efffects; other
health-related effects,including psychological effects, stress and anxiety;
consequences for the environment; the social, economic, institutional and
political impart; nuclear safety remedial measures; and the consequences in
perspective, a prognosis for the future. A panel discussion further explored
the public's perception of the Chernobyl accident. 

Proceedings of the Conference are being published by the IAEA.
Highlights of the Conference are available through the IAEA's World Atom
Internet Services at the address
http://www.iaea.or.at/worldatom/thisweek/preview/chernobyl.

Topical Session 8: The consequences in perspective: Prognosis for the future 

	Evaluation of the Chernobyl accident is very complex because of the
following facts: 
	Assessing the health effects of radiation exposure is difficult since the
precise radiation doses received as a result of the accident are not well known.
	Neither is there a clear understanding of the relationship between
radiation dose received and  cancer induction. Because of these facts,
projections of future numbers of excess cancer cases (above the normal
number expected in given populations) depends upon a number of assumptions
which are at best crude estimates. 

   	  The only health effects to date that are directly attributable to
radiation exposure are the increase in childhood thyroid cancers and the
health effects among the so called "liquidators" (those persons cleaning the
site after the accident). 

     Even though the widespread psychological effects among the population
are unrelated to radiation effects, they are attributable to the accident. 

    	 The increase in the incidence of childhood thyroid cancer has been
dramatic and if it continues to persist, as those affected grow older, it
could result in several thousand cases over the coming decades. 

   	  Increases in leukaemia and thyroid cancers among the most highly
exposed groups (the "liquidators" and people who were evacuated from the
exclusion zone - 30 kms around the accident site) may be detectable in the
future but are not yet apparent. 

	Persons who would benefit from careful monitoring in the future: 

 	  1.Children with distinct possibility of incurring thyroid cancer. 

	   2.The most highly exposed of the "liquidators". 

	   3.First workers called upon to tackle the accident.

===============
Personnel observation: "liquidators" translation from the Russian term
likvidator -- those persons cleaning the site after the accident (such
emergency volunteers, fire-fighters, military personnel, non-professional
personnel). About 200,000 "liquidators" worked in the region of Chernobyl
during the period 1986-1987, when radiation were hightest. 

The observation: --"liquidators" No worst name could be found for those
persons in terms of  Nuclear Communication. "liquidators"  sound like
"eliminate", "decapitate" 

J. J. Rozental <josrozen@netmedia.net.il> 
Israel