Re: Newspaper article on Plutonium

[Brian Gaulke <Brian_Gaulke.HWC@inet.hwc.ca>]

I have now in front of me statistics on age-standardized incidence rates for 
selected cancer sites from the National Cancer Institute of Canada.  According 
to these statistics incidence rates have changed between 1969 and 1996 as 
follows:

MALES:  melanoma:  +247%; stomach:   -43%; non-Hodgkin's lymphoma:  +128%; 
bladder:  -1%; colorectal:  +21%; lung:  +52%; prostate:  +129%; all cancers:  
+43%

FEMALES:  stomach:  -52%; cervix:  -63%; melanoma:  +94%; ovary:  -10%; 
non-Hodgkin's lymphoma:  +118%; body of uterus:  -8%; colorectal:  -7%; lung:  
+350%; breast:  +37%; 
all cancers:  +23%

Note that this is only selected cancer sites and represents something of a 
mixed bag.  In the case of males, the increase in lung cancer incidence 
accounts for only 21% of the increase in total cancer incidence.  In the case 
of females it accounts for about 53% of the increase in total cancer incidence.

I recognize that the specific mix of cancers with increasing incidence rates is 
not suggestive of radiation as the cause (e.g., non-hodgkin's lymphoma has only 
shown weak and inconsistent association with radiation exposure and radiation 
does not appear to be a cause of prostate cancer or melanoma, while lung cancer 
and colorectal cancers have been significantly associated with radiation 
exposure).  Also, increases in some cancers, e.g. breast cancer, are likely to 
be associated with other environmental factors such as increasing levels of 
hormone like chemicals.

However, I think it is very difficult to PROVE that there is no association 
with radiation to be found amongst all the cancers which are on the rise.  For 
this reason I think it is inappropriate to make statements about the lack of 
effects following release of large quantities of radioactivity into the 
environment.





brhodes @ safety.rochester.edu ("Bill Rhodes") 
97/09/15 11:46

To: radsafe @ romulus.ehs.uiuc.edu (Multiple recipients of list) @ INET
cc:  (bcc: Brian Gaulke)
Subject: Re: Newspaper article on Plutonium


> It's my understanding that the incidence rates of many types of cancer have 
> increased significantly over the last few decades...

Brian,

I'm not sure how you formed your understanding.  Scientific American 
did a full issue on cancer last year.  In one article, 
cancer rates were examined.  The conclusion of the article, if I 
remember correctly, was that cancer rates were fairly steady except 
for lung cancer.  The increase in lung cancer was attributed to 
increased tobacco use.  Suggest you review the numbers.

Regards,

Bill Rhodes
Radiation Safety Officer
University of Rochester
716-275-3781
brhodes@safety.rochester.edu
Excelsior (still higher, motto of New York-probably refers to the taxes)