Re: PEACEMAKER- some questions

["Scott D. Kniffin" <Scott.D.Kniffin.1@gsfc.nasa.gov>]

At 17:31 11/03/97 -0600, you wrote:
>If you plan to see the movie, DO NOT READ FURTHER.
>I don't want to spoil your fun.
>If you are not interested in technical data from Hollywood
>please delete.....
>
>Some technical snipes/questions.....
>*******************
>A bunch of people hide in a tunnel (presumably a big
>mountain, but near the entrance).  What is the likelyhood
>that they will survive a surface 700 kt event 15 km distant?

I haven't seen the movie yet, I don't care much for Nicloe Kidman, but...
Somewhere in my computer archives is a nuke weapons effects program.  I can
dig it out, but my gut feeling is that they should survive if the weapon is
detonated at ground level.  An atmospheric burst, say 1,000-3,000 feet
above gound zero would probably result in a significantly less optimistic
prognosis.  
I forget how far away the Japanese soldiers were from the Hiroshima shot
(they were part of an observation post on a mountain side outside the
city), but they had mild radiation poisoning and their retinas were
destroyed by the light/prompt x-ray burst.  
>
>A 2 kt device is detonated at the U.N. building.
>It is stated that the average mid-town dose will be 60 rads.
I can't help where the dose is concerned, but a nuke that size is roughly
the same as the Navy SEAL "backpack" nuke.  A 2kt device is really meant to
take out one large building.  In the case of the UN, assuming it was
detonated street side (not river side) I would expect to loose the UN and
see severe structural damage in the buildings in direct line of sight of
the burst out to about two blocks.  Beyond that, you'll loose windows for
many blocks from the shockwave.  But with all those buildings in the way,
the prompt stuff won't go very far.  Also, if the nuke collapses the UN
into the crater as would likely happen with a small device, that would help
minimize the dose and spread of ram around the area.  The "alleys" created
by the main roads around the UN will act to direct the blast and you'll get
some strange effects that way.  Oh, BTW, if it's detonated river side, the
UN should collapse in to the river with a minimum of damage to things on
the other side.  I still wouldn't want to be there, though.  The vaporized
river water would make an interesing transport vehicle for some of the
stuff kicked up by the blast.  

>Is this realistic?  Without digging out references it seems
>on the low side to me.
>It is also stated that this is a LD50 for that population.
>This would seem to be somewhat inconsistent.
>[Perhaps I misheard the numbers in the pressure of the moment? It was a
>pretty good movie - **1/2, maybe ***]
>-- 
>the above are the personal musing of the author,
>and do not represent any past, current, or future
>position of NIST, the U.S. Government, or anyone else
>who might think that they are in a position of authority.
>NBSR Health Physics
>NIST
>Gaithersburg, MD 20899
>301 975-5810
>-----------------------------------------------------------
>Lester.Slaback@nist.gov
>-----------------------------------------------------------
>
>
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