PEACEMAKER - Some Answers

["Carbaugh, Eugene H" <gene.carbaugh@pnl.gov>]

	Les Slaback queried:
	*************
	A bunch of people hide in a tunnel (presumably a big
	mountain, but near the entrance).  What is the likelyhood
	that they will survive a surface 700 kt event 15 km distant?

	*******

	Last night I dug out my third edition (1977) of Glasstone &
Dolan's The Effects of Nuclear Weapons, (US Dept. of Defense & Dept. of
Energy) and spent a few minutes refreshing my memory on some of this
material.  The weapons effect calculator included with the document (a
circular slide rule variant) gave me the following info for a 700
kiloton surface blast at 9 miles (15 km), which coincidentally will be
about the same as a 1 Megaton blast at 10 miles:

		Maximum Overpressure:  0.6 psi	  (moderate to severe
window breakage)
		Maximum Dynamic Pressure:  0.009 psi
		Maximum Wind Speed from blast:  22 mph
		Thermal radiation:	5 cal/sq cm	  (1st and 2nd
degree burn capability for exposed flesh)
		Initial direct radiation dose:	insignificant (<1 rem)

	Based on this info, no problem with survivability, particularly
in a somewhat sheltered tunnel.

	For an optimum height air burst, light structural damage might
be expected along with severe glass breakage and 2nd-3rd degree burns.
Direct radiation is still insignificant.

	A 2 kt device is detonated at the U.N. building.
	It is stated that the average mid-town dose will be 60 rads.
	Is this realistic?  Without digging out references it seems
	on the low side to me.
	It is also stated that this is a LD50 for that population.
	This would seem to be somewhat inconsistent.

	A 2 kiloton device would deliver an initial radiation dose of 60
rem at a distance of about 0.9 mile.  Certainly wouldn't be an LD50.  At
0.5 miles, the dose would be  (according to the calculator) about 1000
rem, which if one were to assume mostly neutron dose and a quality
factor of 20, might give a 50 rad neutron dose, plus throw in some gamma
for good measure.  The 60 rad as an LD50 might not be too bad if for a
prompt neutron exposure.  Certainly not an immediately incapacitating
dose but doesn't bode well for long term health.  I'm sure that
shielding by buildings, etc would substantially reduce the direct
exposure but might increase the fallout.  The thermal radiation at 0.5
mile is about 10 cal/sq.cm, well above the level for causing 3rd degree
burns.  At 0.9 mile, the thermal radiation is well below 5 cal/sq.cm -
capable of 1st degree burns, but that's about all.

	Guess I'll have to go see the movie now.  (Was that an
advertisement, Les?)

	Gene Carbaugh
	Radiation Protection Services
	Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
	Richland, Washington
	gene.carbaugh