U.S. nuclear power to shrink heavily by 2020 - DOE

["Sandy Perle" <sandyfl@ix.netcom.com>]

Gloom and Doom report. Since many don't have a browser, I'll post the 
entire article here:

LONDON, Dec 19 (Reuters) - U.S. nuclear power generation is to drop
significantly by 2020, according to Department of Energy forecasts
reported by the Nuclear news agency Nucnet.

It said the Energy Information Administration (EIA) 1998 review
outlined three possible scenarios of what might happen to nuclear
power generation given current energy supply, demand and price terms.

The EIA report was at pains to point out that its findings were
``policy neutral'' and indications of what might happen rather than
what will happen.

EIA's mid-point, reference case, suggests nuclear's share of
electricity generation will drop to eight percent in 2020 from 19
percent in 1996 and that no new nuclear units will enter service
before 2020 because gas and coal fired plants are expected to be more
economical.

The ``worst case'' scenario for nuclear power has all nuclear plants
in retirement before 2020 with coal power stations grabbing 73 percent
of the total and combined cycle gas units 22 percent.

A ``best case'' scenario suggests an additional 10 years of operation
for each nuclear plant above its current 40 year term which would mean
only 28 units would retire by 2020.

Nuclear power's supporters have been quick to counter the EIA's
forecasts with the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) dismissing the
projections as ``already out of date'' and at odds with President
Clinton's own advisers who acknowledge the continued need for nuclear
power.

Earlier this month when the Kyoto climate change confernce was getting
underway in Japan, energy secretary Federico Pena said nuclear power
had a role in the fight against greenhouse gas emissions and global
warming, not just in the U.S. but worldwide.

The NEI says replacing America's 107 nuclear power units with fossil
fuel alternatives would be the equivalent of increasing the number of
automobiles in the U.S. by 75 percent in greenhouse emission terms. 
------------------
Sandy Perle
Technical Director
ICN Dosimetry Division
Costa Mesa, CA 92626
Office: (800) 548-5100 x2306 
Fax:    (714) 668-3149
  
sandyfl@ix.netcom.com
sperle@icnpharm.com

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