End of the nuclear option as a viable energy source - opinion -Reply

[ABELQUIE@ORAU.GOV]

Sandy wrote:

Hypothesis: The nuclear option will become less of a viable source of 
energy - in the USA.

Sandy-

I agree with your hypothesis for the most part - I believe we are seeing
the end of the "first generation" nuclear option.  This has been greatly
expedited due to deregulation - if nukes can't compete with gas-fired
plants, they will be decommissioned, and as you stated - much sooner
than their 40 year life spans.  However, I don't believe the longer term
future is as bad as you may think.

We need to build on the lessons learned from the first generation of the
nuclear option - and there are many.  The most important is to have a
high-level radioactive waste policy in place prior to "second coming" of
the nuclear option.  Another biggie is to streamline the NRC licensing
process -  it should not take 10 to 15 years from the ground-breaking to
the approval to start commercial power operations.  And of course we
need to have the public support for the nuclear option - which I believe
will come once the realization sets in that it (the nuclear option) isn't an
option at all - but a necessity if we wish to continue our high standards
of living. [Our society does not seem concerned with where the energy
will come in 25 years - they are far more concerned with how much
does it cost right now.]

So, while it may take another 20 or so years of decommissioning
perfectly healthy reactors - the "second coming" of the nuclear option
should be readying itself.  We will be helped by the declining fossil
reserves and global warming issues- but the opportunity for the nuclear
return will come because of the economics of our market-based society. 

 So for now we must continue building and testing our inherently-safe
reactor designs, plan for the management of nuclear waste, including
reconsideration for reprocessing of spent fuel, and continue our efforts
on communicating with the public.    The nuclear option will return once
our society is faced with an energy crisis - when it is no longer cheap to
use fossil fuels.   

Regards,
Eric Abelquist
abelquie@orau.gov