Re: Dwarfing Chernobyl - Nuclear Winter Point of Reference

[RADPROJECT@aol.com]

n a message dated 98-05-30 22:40:14 EDT, S. Kirk writes:

<< How can you come to your conclusions without the data to support it?  How
 would you know what the consequences would be since such an event has never
 happened?  Simulations do not cut it when we are dealing with such serious
 consequences.  Potential effects at this level should not be minimized!!
 
 S. Kirk >>

I am certainly not in favor of open air testing of nuclear weapons or the use
of nuclear weapons as a casual weapon of war> However, there are some points
of reference as to what effects nuclear weapons use in open air tests have had
on climate via what has been terrmed "nuclear winter" following Carl Sagan's
advocacy several years ago about this possibility.

The open air testing of fission and fusion nuclear bombs by the US and the
Soviets from 1945 until 1963 had, if memory serves me right, an approximate
fission yield of about 194 megatons [according to published results by the
National Academy of Sciences] and a fusion yield  at least 10 to 20 times
greater.

This not insigificant open air testing "experiment" by the US and our "former"
enemies over  a period of 18 years did not have any significant, or
demonstrable,  effect on climate to the best of my knowledge, although the
weapons were admittedly not used to set cities on fire over a wide area.
Nevertheless, it seems likely that as horrible as what I've seen termed a
spasm, or tactical use, nuclear war [with a total fission yield of much less
than a few hundred megatons  between nations such as India or Pakistan or
China and other nations might be, the chance [as noted by Fritz Seiler] of
global nuclear winter being realized appears remote or "overblown" given
results of open air testing to date.

Stewart Farber, MS Public Health
Director - Radium Experiment Assessment Project -
Consulting Scientist
Public Health Sciences
19 Stuart St.
Pawtucket, RI 02860

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