Re: Dwarfing Results

["Fritz A. Seiler" <faseiler@nmia.com>]

SSEKIRK@aol.com wrote:

> Fritz,
>
> How can you come to your conclusions without the data to support it?  How
> would you know what the consequences would be since such an event has never
> happened?  Simulations do not cut it when we are dealing with such serious
> consequences.  Potential effects at this level should not be minimized!!
>
> S. Kirk
> SSEKIRK@aol.com

 Hi all,

But we do have the data!  Just before the ban on atmospheric testing in 1963, the
number of tests peaked.  We facetiously  used to refer to this period as the "one
in the morning and one in the afternoon" phase of testing.  Without too much
error, almost all of the worldwide stratospheric fallout today can be assumed to
have originated during that phase in 1963.  True, most of them were airbursts but,
if I remember correctly, some of them were not.  In addition, we do have the data
for ground bursts at the Nevada Test Site, British Tests in Australia, and some
French Tests in the Sahara.  Also the total energy equivalent in 1963 was large,
much larger than India and Pakistan can manage in the near future.  Even if we
follow the momentary fashion, and throw in China, the amount of fission material
and induced activities should be comparable at most.  So, we do have good data
which can be used to make  the simulations approximate reality.

Have a good weekend,

Fritz

*************************

Fritz A. Seiler, Ph.D.
Principal
Sigma Five Associates
P.O. Box 14006
Albuquerque, NM 87191-4006
Tel.     505-323-7848
Fax.    505-293-3911
e-mail: faseiler@nmia.com

**************************