Re: Risk/Probability Related Interactions with Public - -Reply

[MICHAEL S FORD <MFORD@pantex.com>]

On the same risk perspective comparison that Stewart aptly drew
upon,  I have an editorial cartoon in my office that also depicts the
public's perception of probabilities (in this case):

The cartoon shows a conversation between a government
statistician and t-shirted, smoking, run-of-the-mill fellow:

G-man:  Lifelong smokers have a one-in-two chance of dying from
smoking related disease.

Smoker:  It'll never happen to me.

G-man:  The odds of winning the powerball lottery are 80 million to
one.

Smoker:  [as he holds up his single lottery ticket] This could be my
lucky day!

Weird, huh.....

Is it possible that our difficulties in communicating risk lie in the
fact that, intuitively speaking, people have no understanding how
the risk value is arrived at and therefore dismiss it altogether?  Most
folks you talk to have the radiation = nuclear = mushroom  cloud
= death movie playing in their heads.  Until you describe the
absurdity of the method for arriving at risk values for low exposures
-- with really super math to boot! -- they just won't get it.

Conversely, spending a dollar for a chance at 250 million bucks
sounds pretty good to most folks!  Anybody know where I can get a
lottery ticket?  :)

Have a great day!
v/r
Michael
mford@pantex.com

>>> <RADPROJECT wrote on Wed 29 Jul 98  8:53 >>>
Radsafers:

This morning's national news featured today's Powerball lottery
drawing....

A brief observation.

It seems the behavior of the public regarding low probability events
like winning a Powerball drawing highlights the challenge faced by
risk communicators trying to make an argument that some rare
outcome [like radiation induced health effects due to low level
radiation exposure] confers a risk of cancer mortality or some other
effect of 1 in a million or less....

Stewart Farber, MSPH
Public Health Sciences
19 Stuart St.
Pawtucket, RI 02860

Phone: (401) 727-4947   Fax: (401) 727-2032   E-mail:
radproject@usa.net