Cost-Benefit Analyses -Reply

[Charles Willis <CAW@nrc.gov>]

Scott,

Your point is interesting and it has received some attention.  Bruce Holland and I
presented a paper at the last HPS annual meeting offering a way to put radiological
cost/benefit analyses on a basis consistent with economic theory and practice.  The
value of a person-rem should be site-specific because the value of any good (dose
reduction or other) is determined by what the "customers" think it is worth.

As for a difference between the value of occupational dose and public dose, the
contrasts are interesting.  If you look only at the authoritative risk estimates
(0.0004 vs 0.0005 cancer deaths per person-rem) the difference seems trivial.  On
the other hand, the dose limits are disproportionate to the risk estimates.   The
first regulatory effort to call attention to the ALARA admonition in Part 20 (i.e.
Regulatory Guide 8.8) addressed occupational exposure, largely because doses
received in maintaining nuclear power plants seemed excessive. (E.g., the Indian
Point down comer repair was  said to have virtually "burned up" all the pipefitters
in the Northeast.)  On the other hand, the first dollars per person-rem value to
enter the regulations was for public exposure.  This was the $1,000/person-rem
values that was chosen as being so outrageously high that even Sternglass and
Goffman would accept it.  There is talk of increasing this to $2,000 but with a
reduction for "present worth" considerations. (With a 5% discount rate, in 100
years the value drops to $15.30.) This increase is based on inflation and a
misunderstanding of the changes in risk estimates.  This is in marked contrast to
the high values reported to be used in occupational exposure control programs at
nuclear power plants; the last reports I saw had these values ranging from $5,000
to $27,000, with the average being about $11,400.  Of course, Charlie Meinhold
says these are not true ALARA values, but there is a wide range of values to
choose from.

Of course, there also is room for a lot of discussion.

Charlie Willis
caw@nrc.gov
************************************************************************
The RADSAFE Frequently Asked Questions list, archives and subscription
information can be accessed at http://www.ehs.uiuc.edu/~rad/radsafe.html