THRESHOLD MODELS IN RADIATION CARCINOGENESIS

["Otto G. Raabe" <ograabe@ucdavis.edu>]

>X-POP3-Rcpt: fzraabe@sol
>From: russelmj@songs.sce.com
>Date: Thu, 10 Sep 1998 10:12:09 -0800
>To: <powernet@support.net>
>Subject: THRESHOLD MODELS IN RADIATION CARCINOGENESIS 
>
>     
>     Just in case you haven't seen this article in the September issue of 
>     HPJ, a pretty good piece of work by David Hoel...mjr
>     
>     THRESHOLD MODELS IN RADIATION CARCINOGENESIS 
>     
>     
>     David G. Hoel and Ping Li* 
>     
>     Abstract_
>     
>     Cancer incidence and mortality data from the atomic bomb survivors 
>     cohort has been analyzed to allow for the possibility of a threshold 
>     dose response.  
>     
>     The same dose-response models as used in the original papers were fit 
>     to the data. The estimated cancer incidence from the fitted models 
>     over-predicted the observed cancer incidence in the lowest exposure 
>     group. This is consistent with a threshold or non-linear dose-response 
>     at low-doses. Thresholds were added to the dose-response models and the 
>     range of possible thresholds is shown for both solid tumor cancers as 
>     well as the different leukemia types. 
>     
>     This analysis suggests that the A-bomb cancer incidence data agree 
>     more with a threshold or non-linear dose-response model than a purely 
>     linear model although the linear model is statistically equivalent. 
>     This observation is not found with the mortality data. For both the 
>     incidence data and the mortality data the addition of a threshold term 
>     significantly improves the fit to the linear or linear-quadratic dose 
>     response for both total leukemias and also for the leukemia subtypes 
>     of ALL, AML, and CML. 
>     
>     Key words: atomic bomb survivors; cancer; risk analysis; health 
>     effects 
>
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		*****************************************************
		Prof. Otto G. Raabe, Ph.D., CHP
              Institute of Toxicology & Environmental Health (ITEH)
		     (Street address: Old Davis Road)
		University of California, Davis, CA 95616
		Phone: 530-752-7754  FAX: 530-758-6140
		E-mail ograabe@ucdavis.edu
              *****************************************************
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