RE: power deregulation may shut nuke units

["jomba miteran" <s___@hotmail.com>]

Some other observations:

Everyone forgets that there is a carbon loading of the atmosphere issue 
coming very soon to your local venue. Fossil fuel (coal, petroleum, 
NATURAL GAS, even biomass) all put carbon in the atmosphere. And the 
transportation people have a lock on using fossil fuels. The easiest 
place to reduce carbon loading is electric power generation. The only 
alternative is hydo or nuke. 

Anyone want to bet when the next river is going to be damed in the US 
for power? 

My thermodynamics class proved that a heat engine is going to be (at 
most) 33ish% efficient. So fuel to electric power efficiency could 
improve, but not by much.

If we do switch to gas, my memory of gas turbines in the military makes 
me believe that maintenance is going to be a big issue. Also, it would 
be interesting to see what is the largest gas turbine-generator set you 
can buy.

It wasn't toooo long ago that there was a ban on using gas to generate 
power because the capacity wasn't there. Could be some real chilly 
nights if the we have to chose between heating homes or power.

One of the biggest costs for NUKE was the capital (money). Japan just 
lowered it's bank to bank loan rate to 0.25%. Capital is cheap.

The east coast is getting tired of breathing the effluent from the 
midwest coal power plants. Clean air and carbon loading of the 
atmosphere is going to allow nuclear to have a future again. But the 
utilities have to be smarter and the regulators have to regulate 
smarter. Or we're going to have a pot full of nuke plants along the 
Canadian and Mexican border. Remember NAFTA?

My comments

=====================================================================
 

From: BRZGV@CCMAIL.CECO.COM (Glen Vickers)
To: Multiple recipients of list <radsafe@romulus.ehs.uiuc.edu>
Subject: RE: power deregulation may shut nuke units


A few observations...

How many areas of the country actually have a power surplus and can 
afford to
shut down units of any type.  I do believe that there are several steam
generator replacement projects for PWRs planned over the next couple of 
years.
An investment of say 400-600 million dollars per reactor over the next 
few years
means that utilities are quite serious about trying to make the big 
behemoths
make the power they were designed to make.

I would more likely think that under-performing units would be sold to 
those who
could make them run more efficiently instead of shutting them down.  A 
cheap
source of revenue generation could be to make a plant that is under 
performing
come up to industry standards, rather than trying to site a new source.  
Look at
Brunswick a couple of years ago, 70's BWR down on their luck, then they 
come
back and set, I believe, the industry record for continuous run for a 
BWR.  I
won't pretend to know all of the factors involved in that success story, 
but the
fact is that they generated a measurable success.

A unit with a high capacity factor would actually be a more safe unit 
for the
public.  More of your primary and backup equipment would have to be in 
service a
greater percentage of the time to achieve such good performance.  This 
same
equipment would be needed for safe shut downs and accident scenarios as 
well.

Every region of the country is growing, but where is the capacity to 
support the
growth?  It sure as isn't in the wind mills and renewable sources that 
the
president is talking about.  "Offend no one" politics is absence of 
leadership
and the clock is ticking.

Anyone hear about the vultures at Enron recently squeeling about trying 
to
recover costs?  These hackers sought to come in, cut everyone's throats, 
and
take the money and run.  Let the vultures be damned and pray for those 
who work
hard to make their plants run safely and efficiently.


Sincerely,
Glen

-----Original Message-----
From:     "Sandy Perle" <sandyfl@earthlink.net> at INTERNET
Sent:     Friday, September 04, 1998 12:56 PM
To:     Multiple recipients of list <radsafe@romulus.ehs.uiuc.edu> at 
INTERNET
Subject:     power deregulation may shut nuke units

Wednesday September 2, 7:24 pm Eastern Time

WASHINGTON, Sept 2 (Reuters) - The U.S. Energy Information
Administration said Wednesday that deregulation of the nation's
electricity markets could lead to early retirement of some nuclear
power units, coal mine closures and increased use of natural gas
for power generation.

The EIA, which is the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of
Energy, released its findings in a new report that suggested
widespread changes were in store for fuel suppliers as a result of
plans to restructure power markets.

``Restructuring will change the financial risks faced by the
industries that supply the fuels used to generate electricity and
place
new demands on their supply and transportation systems,'' the EIA
said.

Major impacts were predicted for the coal industry, which currently
supplies 56 percent of utility power generation. The EIA
said market restructuring will result in renewed pressure for cost-
cutting and consolidation, squeezing small firms out of business
and enlarging already sizable firms.

``Power generators will attempt to pass on market risks to coal
producers and carriers (primarily railroads) wherever they
can,'' said the EIA.

The nuclear power sector may be forced to shut some units before
they had originally planned since competitive electricity
prices may be too low to cover operating costs.

Uncertainty over how individual plants would be able to account for
its capital costs, or stranded costs, also played into how
nuclear operators would be able to reduce expenses.

The EIA report said natural gas would gain as the ``fuel of choice''
as deregulation accelerates. ``Deregulation of electricity
markets could lead to greater integration of the electricity and
natural gas industries and the emergence of competitive energy
markets,'' the EIA said.

The higher demand for natural gas for electricity generation was
forecast to increase gas prices at a faster pace than would
have been noted without competition, and at the sametime result in
slightly lower coal prices.

Crude oil-derived fuels were not expected to witness much change
in the face of restructuring since only 2 percent of the
nation's petroleum consumption goes for electric power uses, the
EIA said.

The report saw no stimulus for renewable energy technologies
unless required by government policies.

Federal deregulation legislation was expected to be acted on next
year when Congress reconvenes, after both the House and
Senate ran out of time to fashion a comprehensive plan agreeable
to both Republicans and Democrats this year.

States have taken up deregulation on their own, with some like
California and Illinois already restructuring their industries, and
others partially moving to free wholesale markets to competition.
Two states, Florida and South Dakota have taken no
significant action on the issue, EIA said.

California in late March became the first state to open its retail
electricity market to competition, and a number of retail access
pilot programs were underway in other states.

------------------
Sandy Perle
Technical Director
ICN Dosimetry Division
ICN Plaza
3300 Hyland Avenue
Costa Mesa, CA 92626
Office: (800) 548-5100 x2306
Fax:    (714) 668-3149

sandyfl@earthlink.net
sperle@icnpharm.com

ICN Dosimetry Website:
http://www.dosimetry.com

Personal Website:
http://www.geocities.com/CapeCanaveral/1205

"The object of opening the mind, as of opening
the mouth, is to close it again on something solid"
              - G. K. Chesterton -

The opinions expressed are solely, absolutely, positively, definitely 
those of
the author, and NOT my employer
************************************************************************
The RADSAFE Frequently Asked Questions list, archives and subscription
information can be accessed at http://www.ehs.uiuc.edu/~rad/radsafe.html 
<<
File: RFC822.TXT >>
************************************************************************
The RADSAFE Frequently Asked Questions list, archives and subscription
information can be accessed at http://www.ehs.uiuc.edu/~rad/radsafe.html



______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
************************************************************************
The RADSAFE Frequently Asked Questions list, archives and subscription
information can be accessed at http://www.ehs.uiuc.edu/~rad/radsafe.html