Re: 356 days till the millenium

[kaplan@bnl.gov]

>Folks - this is being sent for general interest only
>gotten from the S.T.A.R web page (www.noradiation.org),
>NUCLEAR Y2K SYMPOSIUM

>The STAR Foundation (Standing for Truth About Radiation) is an
>organization committed to educating the public about medical and
>environmental impacts of all things nuclear, ranging from contamination
>at old DOE facilities, to the medical implications of nuclear meltdowns
>and nuclear waste, to the final and catastrophic global contamination of
>a nuclear war.

>To this end, STAR convened a two day symposium at the New York Academy of
>Medicine in September 1998 titled  "Recent Studies of Low Level Radiation
>and Implications for Medicine and the Nuclear Industry."  Papers ranged
>from the examination of small doses of external radiation, to large
>cellular doses received from "internal emitters," to the ultimate
>radioactive event -
>nuclear war.  International experts from both sides of the issue
>presented papers, 300 people attended, and Continuing Medical Education
>Credits were provided to attending physicians.

>In a continuing series of similar events, STAR is now organizing a
>symposium on "Nuclear Y2K" to be held in the Canon Caucus Room in the
>Canon Office Building on March 8 in Washington DC. This event will be
>cosponsored by the British and American Security Information Council
>(BASIC) and the Nuclear Information Resource Service (NIRS).

> 	Y2K or the "millenium bug" is the most urgent nuclear issue of our time
>demanding immediate discussion, investigation, education and media
>attention.  Though Y2K is a complex and multi-layered problem that cannot
>be adequately summarized here, it can be said that erroneous information
>generated by computer systems - software, hardware and embedded computer
>chips - on January 1, 2000 will compromise the integrity of nuclear
>safety systems, as it will all other computer systems.

>There is acknowledged and widespread uncertainty about the degree to
>which nuclear facilities will be impacted by Y2K. Well-informed opinions
>range from one extreme to the other; the only certainty being that nobody
>can be sure what Y2K will bring. Top level experts from both the Pentagon
>and the nuclear power industry regularly acknowledge that all their
>systems will not be "Y2K compliant," even if these experts could agree
>about the exact definition of this term. 

>Y2K Technical Problem

>The year 2000 (Y2K) technical problem is based upon the potential
>inability of computers to correctly recognize dates beyond December 31,
>1999. The problem will result from computer hardware and/or software and
>embedded chips that use two-digit fields to represent the year: e.g. to
>save space, computer programmers used "97" to denote "1997," instead of
>the full number of digits. When the year 2000 appears, some of the chips
>and systems are likely to read 1900, causing computers to crash, or to
>generate aberrant or faulty data. 

>NUCLEAR Y2K SYMPOSIUM  

>The Nuclear Y2K Symposium will analyze potential and predicted computer
>problems involving both nuclear power plants and nuclear weapons. 

>NUCLEAR POWER AND Y2K

>There are 433 operating nuclear power plants globally, some are totally
>digitalized (computerized), as in Japan, and some depend to a minor
>extent on computer control; all are subjects for potential computer
>malfunction on January 1, 2000.  If parts of the electrical grid
>malfunction because of innate computer problems, or if the cooling water
>system fails in a reactor because of an in-built computer Y2K problem, a
>potential nuclear meltdown could ensue.

>The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has stated that the Y2K problem
>at nuclear reactors is "urgent because it has a fixed, non-negotiable
>deadline that is quickly approaching. This matter requires priority
>attention because of the limited time remaining to assess the magnitude
>of the problem, assess its associated risks, and implement programs that
>will achieve a satisfactory resolution of the Y2k problem."  Furthermore
>it says that, "there is a risk that affected plants systems and equipment
>may fail to function properly." 

>Among the systems that the NRC feels may be impacted are safeguard
>systems, computer security systems, emergency response systems, radiation
>monitoring systems, engineering programs and systems and plant process
>display system computers. And this is a relatively controlled nuclear
>power program. Consider the old Soviet-style, Chernobyl type reactors,
>which are known to be at great risk.

>NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND Y2K

>Many nuclear weapons systems such as bombs, missiles, early warning
>systems, nuclear submarines, and planes can be prone to errors.  John
>Pike from the Federation of American Scientists said in 1998 that "in
>principle, STRATCOM and USSPACECOM operating environments, as well as
>those of supporting intelligence activities, represent discrete
>highly-visible mission-critical implementations which are obvious
>candidates for robust Y2K compliance. In practice, this strategic nuclear
>war fighting infrastructure is a vast system-of-systems that constitutes
>the single most complex automated information system currently in
>existenceà" 

>Recent federal government reports say that the Pentagon will not be Y2K
>compliant until the year 2010.     John Koskinen, head of the White House
>Y2K conversion council said that, "if the data doesn't function on the
>nuclear missiles they will actually go off."

>Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, John Hamre, warned that the
>concern was not that the military screens would all go blank on 2000.
>"That would be good news," he said. "We would at least know we have
>problem. The greater problem would be if the screens stay up, but we are
>receiving wrong data and we don't know itàWe know we are in for some
>nasty surprises."  

>Hamre also said in October 1998, "probably one out of five days I wake up
>in a cold sweat thinking Y2K is much bigger than we think, and then the
>other four days I think maybe we are on top of it. Everything is so
>interconnected, it's very hard to know with any precision that we have
>got it fixed." 

>PROPOSED PROGRAM

>Morning - Nuclear Power
>The topics to be addressed will include:  

>1.   Generic overview of Y2K, by Bill Urich who has authored two books on
>the subject.
>2.  How computers and embedded chips might affect plant safety,  and how
>grid failure could impact reactors - David Lockbaum - Union Of Concerned
>Scientists.
>3.  Multiple mode failures in nuclear reactors and weapons - Michio Kaku
>-
>Professor theoretical physics, City University of New York.  4.  Grid
>vulnerabilities - speaker to be announced.
>5.  Back up diesel powered generators and their reliability - Paul
>Gunther -
>Nuclear Information Resource Service (NIRS).
>6.  Nuclear Regulatory Commission Report, Shirley Jackson, Chair, Nuclear
>Regulatory Commission.  
>7.  Global reactor problems, Joschka Fischer, Foreign Minister, Germany.  
> 8.  Nuclear accidents amidst potential Y2K disruptions - speaker to be
>announced.

>Afternoon - Nuclear Weapons

>1. The Impact of the Year 2000 Problem on US Nuclear Weapons, Michael
>Kraig, British American Security Information Council (BASIC).
>2. Nuclear  weapons of other countries, France, England, China, Russia ,
>and command and control status of each country, Stephen  Young , BASIC.
>3. Generic questions re: nuclear weapons and Y2K, Ted Taylor, Physicist .
>4. De-alerting nuclear weapons, and Command Disintegration, Bruce Blair,
>Brookings Institute.
>5. Action Agenda, What Should Be Done, John Pike,  Federation of American
>Scientists.
>6. Philosophical Questions for the Future: Transformative possibilities
>of Y2K, speaker to be announced.

>GOAL

>The aim of the symposium is to educate the attending public, and to
>attract a national press presence. This will ensure education at a
>national level about Nuclear Y2K.

>FURTHER EVENTS

>1. CONGRESS

>STAR will also help to organize Congressional and Senate hearings the
>following week on pertinent topics addressed in the symposium.

>2. THE UNITED NATIONS

>In April, STAR will organize a small symposium at the United Nations
>during the first week of the Preparatory Committee for the Non
>Proliferation Treaty in order to alert the nations of the world about the
>problem. This conference will be cosponsored by Abolition 2000.

>For further information
>contact STAR at 516-324-0655.

-----------------------------------------------------------
Ed Kaplan, Ph.D.                                     Voice: (516) 344-2007
Brookhaven National Laboratory                        Fax: (516) 344-5810 
 Upton, New York 11973

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