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RE: cassini flyby -Reply
According to the Scientific American article that I just read this weekend,
NASA has it set up for Cassini to "miss" by a greater than 1000 kM unless
there is input from NASA for a course change. The interesting item ( to me
) was that the closest approach ( after correction ) appears to be within
the normal range of satellites. I wonder ( I be willing to be they do ) if
they factor satellite locations into their calculations ?
... mine and mine alone ...
Ron LaVera
Lavera.r@nypa.gov
-----Original Message-----
From: Michael S Ford [mailto:MFORD@pantex.com]
Sent: Thursday, August 19, 1999 9:07 AM
To: Multiple recipients of list
Subject: cassini flyby -Reply
The issue here is that the "fly-by" speed of the Cassini
probe (42,300
mph) is well above the assumed reentry velocity that the Pu
heat
source was designed to (25,000 mph). 'Appears to be a valid
issue.
Perhaps Tad could comment as to whether NASA increased the
fly-by distance because of this?
See two-month old articles below for background. It's got
all the
radio-phobia you could ever hope for.
My own personal/non-corporate thoughts,
v/r
Michael
mford@pantex.com
TX Radiation Advisory Board
[Articles]
Protesters Are Wary of Space Probe
KNIGHTRIDDER NEWS SERVICE, June 30, 1999
http://www.sltrib.com/1999/jun/06301999/nation_w/4905.htm
PASADENA, Calif. -- A space probe powered by 72.3 pounds of
plutonium, one of the deadliest substances on Earth, is
hurtling
back toward our planet and reawakening the vigorous
controversy
that accompanied its launch two years ago.
Bound for Saturn after a journey that slingshots it around
several
planets, the Cassini probe will carry its radioactive and
highly toxic
fuel to within 723 miles of Earth -- at 42,300 mph.
Not much room for error there.
Scientists are fine-tuning the route now. They say they have
everything under control. Scheduled time for Cassini's
closest
approach to Earth: 11:30 p.m. MDT on Aug. 18.
"There is no chance it will cross Earth's trajectory," said
Ralph Miles,
an engineer and hazardous-materials expert at NASA's Jet
Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., which controls
Cassini.
"None."
Nevertheless, anti-nuclear activists and environmentalists
are
gearing up their protests. They say hundreds, thousands,
even
millions of people could die if the probe crashes into
Earth's
atmosphere, explodes and spews its cancer-causing plutonium
fuel.
Send it to the Sun: "This is a chance for us to alert the
world," said
Bruce Gagnon, a coordinator in Gainesville, Fla., for the
Global
Network Against Weapons and Nuclear Power in Space, which
claims 55 chapters around the world. "We want NASA to send
Cassini into the sun."
Even Gagnon doesn't think that's possible. The Cassini
project
costs $3.5 billion.
Launched from Cape Canaveral on Oct. 15, 1997, amid sit-ins,
fence
climbing, unsuccessful court actions and other protests,
Cassini is
due to arrive at Saturn in 2004.
It is designed to conduct 27 scientific investigations of
the planet, its
mysterious rings and some of its 18 moons, including Titan,
which
bears some resemblance to Earth.
"It's possible we can get clues as to how Earth was born,"
said Bob
Mitchell, NASA's program manager for Cassini.
The 2,500-pound probe requires fly-bys of Earth, Venus and
Jupiter.
By the time it reaches Saturn, it will have traveled 2.2
billion miles.
NASA says plutonium is the only practical power source
because
Cassini is traveling too far from the sun to employ solar
power.
Powered by Plutonium: Other unmanned spacecraft have been
fueled by small amounts of plutonium, but never as much as
sits on
board Cassini. Some deep-space probes now being prepared for
launch also will be powered by plutonium.
"It's clear to us that there's a major move within the
Department of
Energy to push nuclear power into space," Gagnon said, "and
NASA
and the Air Force are very willing partners."
Experts say that just one-millionth of a gram of plutonium
-- an
invisible particle -- could cause lung or bone cancer if
inhaled or
otherwise introduced into the body.
NASA's worst-case scenario if the fly-by goes awry: 120 to
2,300
people develop lung or bone cancer and die prematurely.
Opponents say many more people could be endangered. But NASA
says the dangers are minimal.
---
[Gagnon quotes himself a lot here... that must be weird]
U.S. SHIRKS LIABILITY ISSUE ON CASSINI
Contact: Bruce Gagnon (352) 337-9274 <globenet@afn.org>,
July
1, 1999
The "double standard" that the U.S. has created to deal with
its
liability in the event of a space nuclear accident
including the
current plutonium-fueled Cassini space probe mission is
being
described as an "outright violation of the Outer Space
Treaty" by the
Global Network Against Weapons & Nuclear Power in Space.
The 1967 Outer Space Treaty, the fundamental international
law on
space, states that "each state party to the treaty that
launches or
procures the launching of an object into outer space*is
internationally liable for damage to another state party."
Nevertheless, the U.S. in 1991 initiated a "Space Nuclear
Power
Agreement" between NASA and the U.S. Department of Energy
which restricts U.S. liability in the event of a mishap on
a mission
involving a nuclear power system to the limits of the U.S.
Price-Anderson Act. The act limits U.S. liability in the
event of a
nuclear accident to $100 million for all other nations and
$8.9 billion
for the U.S. itself.
"This is an outrageous double standard," declared Bruce
Gagnon,
coordinator of the Global Network. "The U.S. is not, as the
Outer
Space Treaty requires, agreeing to be *internationally
liable for
damage.* It is the height of international arrogance."
Meanwhile, this coming August 18, NASA intends to have
Cassini,
with 72.3 pounds of deadly plutonium, perform a dangerous
fly-by of
Earth. Cassini will buzz Earth at 42,300 mph at just 729
high in what
NASA calls a "slingshot" maneuver so it can gain speed for
its trip to
Saturn.
If a malfunction occurs NASA admits in its Environmental
Impact
Statement (EIS) that Cassini, with no heat shield, could
reenter the
Earth*s 75-mile atmosphere disintegrating and releasing the
plutonium globally.
In an "Safety Evaluation Report" prepared for NASA just
prior to the
October 1997 launch of Cassini the "Interagency Nuclear
Safety
Review Panel" concluded that, "the aeroshells have not been
designed for the high speed reentry characteristic of this
fly-by
maneuver. Much of the plutonium is vaporized and over a
50-year
period provides a collective dose to the world*s
population*it is
possible, using the linear non-threshold dose hypothesis, to
postulate up to several tens of thousands of latent cancer
fatalities
worldwide over the next to years."
Independent scientists say the death toll could be much
higher. Dr.
Ernest Sternglass, professor emeritus of radiological
physics at the
University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, says 20
million to 40
million people could die.
As for clean-up costs, NASA in its EIS says costs could be
as high
as $200 million per square kilometer and also says that a
"reentry
footprint" of dispersed plutonium "could range to about
50,000
square kilometers" bringing the cost to $10 trillion.
NASA claims that the "likelihood" of a Cassini Earth fly-by
accident
is "one-in-a-million", but Dr. Stephen Edberg of NASA*s Jet
Propulsion Laboratory admits in the award-winning
investigative TV
documentary "Nukes in Space 2: Unacceptable Risks" that
this
estimate was "pulled out of a hat" by NASA scientists.
Meanwhile, noted Gagnon, even if the Cassini fly-by is not
diverted
from Earth NASA is planning at least eight more
nuclear-fueled
space shots in coming years.
"With an accident rate of 12% in its space nuclear program
already,
additional accidents are inevitable and the U.S. is thumbing
its nose
at the rest of the world when it comes to covering the
liability
question," said Gagnon.
Gagnon stated that the Global Network, with affiliates
throughout the
world, is seeking to have nations challenge the U.S.*s
"Space
Nuclear Power Agreement" in the United Nations and through
the
International Court of Justice at The Hague as a violation
of
international law.
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