[ RadSafe ] Re: The demise of LNT

[jjcohen at prodigy.net]

Rainer,
    I hope you are correct in predicting the approaching demise of LNT, but
I am not so sure. As scientists, we naturally believe that fact and logic
will ultimately prevail. However,
LNT was never really based on science. The adoption on LNT had a more
political basis intended to give the impression that radiation standards
provided an ultimate degree of safety. There has been an abundance of recent
assessments indicating that LNT is nonsense from a scientific standpoint.
However, there has been little, if any, action in the political arena.
    IMHO, scientific problems are best solved by science, while political
problems should be corrected by political action. Whether or not it has a
sound scientific basis, as long as LNT remains politically correct, it will
continue to prevail.

Jerry Cohen



----- Original Message -----
From: <Rainer.Facius at dlr.de>
To: <chris.hofmeyr at webmail.co.za>
Cc: <radsafe at radlab.nl>
Sent: Friday, August 12, 2005 7:12 AM
Subject: AW: AW: [ RadSafe ] AW: Low level radiation and cancer:


Christian:

Thank you for your information regarding the life expectancy in Kerala
exceeding that of normal Indians by a huge 19 years. I wonder whether you
might be able to dig up this information in writing. Nowadays TV stations
often publish manuscripts of their broadcasts on their website. Since you
did see this interview, you are the one predestined to search for such a
document.

Regarding your suggestion to study life expectancy as a function of the
natural radiation exposure, my attitude is spilt.

Given the never-ending hassles regarding the influence of confounders,
competing - in particular socio-economic - factors etc., etc., I sincerely
doubt that such a crude population wide measure will yield the convincing
evidence you expect. That an endpoint even less specific than cancer could
reveal a compelling association with background dose radiation which cancer
studies - with the exception of B. Cohen's work for lung cancer - were so
far unable to establish would appear as a miracle to me and many more.

On the other hand, if indeed differences in the order of the Kerala life
span excess could be demonstrated elsewhere and associated with radiation
exposure, that really might be able to finally put LNT to rest. A far as
science is concerned, I see the life expectancy of the LNT postulate
approaching its natural demise anyway, so that to accelerate its departure
might not be worth the efforts necessary for the studies which you suggest
(of course Jim Muckerheide will vehemently object). If however such results
could be construed as a case for radiation-hormesis working in human
populations, the implications are hardly imaginable and of course would
merit any effort.

Hopefully you will be able to find that interview and share it.

Kind regards, Rainer