[ RadSafe ] How many curies were involved in Hiroshima

Busby, Chris C.Busby at ulster.ac.uk
Wed Jun 22 15:47:20 CDT 2011

-----Original Message-----
From: radsafe-bounces at agni.phys.iit.edu on behalf of Brennan, Mike  (DOH)
Sent: Wed 22/06/2011 21:27
To: The International Radiation Protection (Health Physics) MailingList
Subject: Re: [ RadSafe ] How many curies were involved in Hiroshima
If the best epidemiologists in the entire world study the situation and
agree that such a study has merit, I would still be skeptical.  The
confounding factors are of such overwhelming magnitude that any
variation from some selected "norm" (I say "selected" because I am
confident that there are people who will pick and choose until they can
manipulate the data to support their preconceptions) cannot be
attributed to the releases from Fukushima.  

Unless you are going to blame all the deaths related to the earthquake
and tsunami, collapse of infrastructure, loss of livelihood and home
(perhaps from the release, or perhaps from other conditions), the trauma
of loss of loved ones and community, dispersal of refugees to other
locations for in some cases the rest of their lives (because they can't
or choose not to return, even when contamination is no longer an issue)
etc. on the reactors.  Heck, using your simplistic model and the right
cherry picking of data, hormesis will be demonstrated, because a lot of
people with frail health died in the earthquake and aftermath, so they
won't be available to die later.  

-----Original Message-----
From: radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu
[mailto:radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu] On Behalf Of Busby, Chris
Sent: Wednesday, June 22, 2011 11:19 AM
To: The International Radiation Protection (Health Physics) Mailing List
Subject: Re: [ RadSafe ] How many curies were involved in Hiroshima

Dear Sandy,
The way this works is through epidemiology.

I hope we can agree on what constitutes good data.

So what I predict is this:
The deaths in Fukushima say within 100km from the site will be
statisticallly significantly higher than the deaths in Osaka. I am
predicting greater than 30%. This means that something caused this
increased mortality. The rate before the Fukushima releases will be
roughly the same in Fukushima as in Osaka or in all Japan. It will be a
simple matter then to associate the deaths/ cancer incidence/ infant
mortality with the exposures. OK? If you fine they are the same, no
difference, I will apologise for my error. If you find that what I
predict is true, then you must do the same.

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