[ RadSafe ] Go Figure: How can you explain cancer clusters?
Maury
maurysis at peoplepc.com
Fri May 13 22:13:23 CDT 2011
Any observed event (and even some unobserved ones) having no explanation
cannot be accepted as a random event -- absent an explanation, one will
be conjured up irrespective of how outlandish it might seem. Almost as
the dyslexic, insomniac, agnostic lies awake struggling with the
existence of doG.
Thus are humans constructed -- this behavior is not good, evil, or bad
.... it just is.
Best,
Maury&Dog
==========================
On 5/13/2011 5:23 PM, Jerry Cohen wrote:
> In this regard, an interesting experiment to try with your non-scientist friends
> is the following:
> 1) pin a map of your state or country to the wall,
> 2) throw 2 darts randomly on to the map,
> 3) note the city or town closest to where each dart landed
> 4) find the cancer rate of each community- inevitably one community will have a
> higher rate than the other
> 5) ask your non-scientist friends what they think might account for the
> difference.
> I have tried this a few times and get responses suggesting different "pollution"
> levels, types of industry , age of population, etc., but never have I received a
> response suggesting that this is just a matter of random variation.
>
>
>
> ________________________________
> From: "Brennan, Mike (DOH)"<Mike.Brennan at DOH.WA.GOV>
> To: The International Radiation Protection (Health Physics) MailingList
> <radsafe at health.phys.iit.edu>
> Sent: Fri, May 13, 2011 1:44:22 PM
> Subject: Re: [ RadSafe ] Go Figure: How can you explain cancer clusters?
>
> Or there can be a causal relationship, just not the one people think.
>
> I am reminded of a story (it may be true, but as I've heard similar
> stories for different facilities, it might be illustrative of a concept)
> of a "study" by a group against a particular facility (a nuclear power
> plant in one of the versions, but any big industrial facility will do),
> showing that cancer deaths increased in the county the facility was
> located in, starting shortly after operations started. What was not in
> the study was that, in part due to increased tax base, a county hospital
> was opened about the time that cancer deaths increased. Previously,
> residence of that county who had cancer had gone to other hospitals in
> other counties, and often died there.
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu
> [mailto:radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu] On Behalf Of Fred Dawson
> GoogleMail
> Sent: Friday, May 13, 2011 1:06 AM
> To: radsafe at health.phys.iit.edu
> Subject: [ RadSafe ] Go Figure: How can you explain cancer clusters?
>
> > From the BBC
>
> "This is an experiment. No real cancers are involved. But that's the
> point.
> We're going to see if we can make a game of pure chance look like
> something
> real and meaningful.
>
> Why? Because this week an official report in the UK stated that
> radiation
> from nuclear power stations does not cause increased levels of childhood
> leukaemia.
>
> A conspiracy, allege critics. Statistical lies, say others. The problem
> is
> obvious, they argue.
>
> The Committee on Medical Aspects of Radiation in the Environment
> (COMARE),
> first investigated the question 25 years ago. It's still at it.
>
> And the reason, both for some people's scepticism and for COMARE's
> 25-year
> struggle to find a definitive answer, is the role of chance.
>
> Can we recreate the problem? Here goes."
>
> continues at
>
> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-13374325
>
> Fred Dawson
> New Malden
> England
>
>
>
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