[ RadSafe ] Occams Razor and EU claims. was: Re: Findings of enriched U in Fallujah and elsewhere
Stewart Farber
SAFarber at optonline.net
Wed Oct 19 15:45:59 CDT 2011
Douglas Minnema writes in his prior post below:
"Occams razor could also be used to suggest that somebody is
mis-interpreting the lab results."
=============
Hello all,
Given the recent historical record regarding numerous deceptive claims
about environmental radioactivity issues in Japan and elsewhere by various
parties "for fun and profit", it must be recognized that Occam's razor is
inaccurately summarized as "the simplest explanation is most likely the
correct one." Occam's razor is a principle that generally recommends
selecting from among competing hypotheses the one that makes the fewest
new assumptions.
Given that as the Bard wrote: "What's past is prologue", and given the
track record of various parties making extreme and ultimately untrue
statements concerning environmental radiation and radioactivity, the
most likely expression of Occam's razor in the case of claims about
Enriched Uranium [EU] use in battle in Iraq and Lebanon is that someone is
not mis-interpreting the lab results claimed to have been obtained, but
instead misrepresenting whatever data does, or does not exist.
It is likely in considering Occam's razor, that given the historical
record and credibility of different parties making assertions regarding EU
in battlefield situations, that QA could perhaps just as well be an
acronym for "Questionable Assertion" and not "Quality Assurance."
Stewart Farber, MS Public Health
=====================
On Wed, 19 Oct 2011 15:18:35 -0400, Douglas Minnema <douglasm at dnfsb.gov>
wrote:
> Sorry, I don't have access to the origianl papers right now. Just how
> "enriched" is this material? And what methods and isotopic ratios were
> used to determine the "enrichment?" Similar to EU, not all DU is the
> same mix of isotopes.
>
> I would suspect that uranium of any enrichment is much more valuable
> than DU, and I see absolutely no logical value in using enriched uranium
> in any of the cases described here. In other words, there is no
> financial or weapon-based advantage to using EU over DU. Furthermore,
> it is illogical to use EU in order to "disguise" the use of
> uranium-based penetrators; why not use natural uranium??
>
> Occams razor could also be used to suggest that somebody is
> mis-interpreting the lab results.
>
> Doug Minnema
>
>>>> "Busby, Chris" <C.Busby at ulster.ac.uk> 10/19/11 1:00 PM >>>
> Yes, that is a reasonable suggestion and you may be sure that I thought
> of it.
> It does not explain the enriched uranium in the Lebanon in the bomb
> crater and air filter nor the enriched uranium in Gaza samples.
> So Occams razor applies.
> Sincerely
> C
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: radsafe-bounces at agni.phys.iit.edu on behalf of Glenn R. Marshall
> Sent: Tue 18/10/2011 20:24
> To: The International Radiation Protection (Health Physics) Mailing List
> Subject: Re: [ RadSafe ] Findings of enriched U in Fallujah and elsewhere
> Maybe Saddam spilled a little enriched U while hastily getting out of
> the country..... That's at least as plausible as the notion that
> enriched U penetrators were used on the battlefield.
>
> Glenn Marshall
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu
> [mailto:radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu] On Behalf Of Busby, Chris
> Sent: Tuesday, October 18, 2011 3:16 PM
> To: Joe Toole; The International Radiation Protection (Health Physics)
> Mailing List; List Radsafe
> Subject: Re: [ RadSafe ] Findings of enriched U in Fallujah and elsewhere
>
> No, that isnt the case. I can see why you might believe that. These were
> two separate labs, one in UK and one in Germany. In addition the Lebanon
> samples were tested by ICPMS in UK and by alpha spectrometry in UK at a
> separate lab run by David Assinder (qv). The soil samples Fallujah were
> extracted and the uranium concentrated by ion exchange to the point
> that there was no mistake. The 95% confidence limits were determined:
> look at the paper.
> Chris
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: radsafe-bounces at agni.phys.iit.edu on behalf of Joe Toole
> Sent: Tue 18/10/2011 16:25
> To: List Radsafe
> Subject: [ RadSafe ] Findings of enriched U in Fallujah and elsewhere
> <<[as well as Fallujah]...Enriched Uranium signatures have also turned
> up in other recent battlefields, notably in the Lebanon, where soil from
> a missile crater in Khiam and also dust from an ambulance air filter
> both showed the presence of Enriched Uranium in 2006, a finding reported
> in The Independent by Robert Fisk. The authors are unable to explain why
> these weapons contain or produce slightly enriched Uranium and call for
> the military to now reveal the truth about the weapons systems being
> employed in modern battlefields. >>
>
> It is not clear from Prof Busby's post where these mass spectrometric
> measurements were done. What I do think is that that the laboratory has
> an uncorrected measurement bias. Try running a soil or grass sample from
> Green Audit's back garden in the same lab, you may scare yourself. To
> extrapolate an uncorrected measurement bias to conclude the existence
> and widespread use of enriched uranium weaponry is rather silly.
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--
Stewart Farber, MS Public Health
Farber Medical Solutions, LLC
Bridgeport, CT 06604
203-441-8433
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