[ RadSafe ] Modeling Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion

[Brennan, Mike (DOH)]

I would be dubious of any modeling program that claimed to answer this
without error bars larger than the predicted results.  The more
confident someone was that their program could model reality, the less
confident I would be that they had a clue.  Even if they were
breathtakingly convincing, I would want an extensive sampling program,
using long term kits and continuous radon monitors, to verify. 


I have a project in which there are 6-8,000 release points which are
200m
radius central pivot spray irrigation systems.  The area is quite flat
with
only 30-50 meters of relief over 10s of kilometers. Given a 'Q' for each
release point and known atmospheric conditions, I'd like to calculate
the
average dose of radon & daughters being released.  The total release in
a
season is about 3-5 KCi of radon activity in an area about 3,000 km^2.
The
release is fairly uniform throughout the irrigated area.  Several
communities are present in the 'middle' of the irrigated area. Wind rose
is
well characterized and the vertical temperature change is uniform.
There
are seldom, if any, temperature inversions.  The typical radon
concentrations in the irrigation water are 1,500 -10,000 pCi/L. Outliers
may exceed 1 million pCi/L in the vicinity of a uranium feature.

Are their any 'magic bullets' already developed to handle this kind of
problem?

Dan ii

Dan W McCarn, Geologist
108 Sherwood Blvd
Los Alamos, NM 87544-3425
+1-505-672-2014 (Home - New Mexico)
+1-505-670-8123 (Mobile - New Mexico)
HotGreenChile at gmail.com (Private email) HotGreenChile at gmail dot com


On Tue, Mar 6, 2012 at 12:30 AM, Ahmad Al-Ani
<ahmadalanimail at yahoo.com>wrote:

>
>
> Are there publicly accessible tools for modeling atmospheric transport
and
> dispersion similar to US Department of Defense's "HPAC" - Hazard
Prediction
> Assessment Capability?
>
> Disregarding the intended message of the report, "HPAC" was used to
create
> this report "What if the Fukushima nuclear fallout crisis had happened
here
> (US)?" link http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/fallout/
>
> Ahmad
>
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