[ RadSafe ] Fukushima, Tsunamis, Quakes, Pigs Flying...

[JPreisig at aol.com]

Dear Radsafe,
 
 
     From:    _jpreisig at aol.com_ (mailto:jpreisig at aol.com)       .
 
 
     Hey all,
 
 
          Yep, Radsafe has had  discussions about quakes, tsunamis, planes 
flying into reactors etc.
What should we have done earlier????
 
          Many of Japan's  reactors are right along the ocean coastline.  
With knowledge of the  quakes,
tsunamis. etc. there, perhaps building a 20 to 40 foot tall sea wall along  
the coast (near each reactor)
should be done.  Large magnitude 8.0 or so earthquakes appear to occur  in 
Japan about every 25
years or so.  I could do a PhD on Japan quakes, tsunamis, etc. and  still 
come up with a similar
number.  The earthquake associated with Fukushima was in the vicinity  of 
magnitude 9.0, which
probably doesn't happen once in 100 years.  Compare this with a  reactor 
lifetime of 40 to 60
years...  I expect the rest of Japan's reactors should remain in  service 
until the end of their lifetime.
 
       Magnitude 9.0 events are not all that  common... Chile and Alaska in 
the 1960's,
a recent Chilean event, the 2 to 3 earthquakes in Indonesia occuring around 
 2000 - 2010,
the recent Fukushima-associated earthquake....
 
       A gentleman with a pretty profound  knowledge of Japanese 
earthquakes and earthquakes
in general is Dr. Hiroo Kanamori of Caltech (California USA).  I don't  
know if Dr. Kanamori still
gives public seminars/lectures, but maybe some southern California HP  
chapter could invite him to
one of their meetings to give a talk.
 
      Fukushima reactor engineering was pretty  darned good, considering 
the hazard involved.
Most US nuclear plants have NO tsunami risk.  Is San Onofre the  
exception????
 
      Right now, for the next 6 weeks or so is  earthquake season (global), 
and the main question is
where???  Location, location, location....!!!!!  So, if you  notice your 
cats, dogs, horses,
cows, pigs, etc. acting strangely, maybe there is a reason.   Previously, 
there have been reports of 
strange animal behavior in China prior to very large earthquakes.
 
      Bolt's book on Earthquakes is pretty good  for a public audience, 
with Stacey for general 
geophysics and Aki and Richards for Graduate level Seismology (complete  
with earthquake
source terms and Green's functions).  Peruse the last book at your own  
risk.
 
      Be good.
 
 
      Regards,     Joseph R.  (Joe) Preisig, PhD