[ RadSafe ] Fukushima, Tsunamis, Quakes, Pigs Flying...
Karen_Street at sbcglobal.net
Mon Mar 19 17:54:53 CDT 2012
As I understand it, the Japanese approach is to look at the historical record, up to a point; obviously they were ignoring once in a millennium earthquakes. The American approach is to figure out what maximum ground motion is possible in the area.
I assume that NRC has figured out what kind of tsunami West Coast reactors could see, and that it is re-evaluating these assumptions. When the VA earthquake hit, NRC was well into a project to reconsider if areas like VA could see more earth movement than had been assumed. (The answer is yes.)
> Dear Radsafe,
> From: _jpreisig at aol.com_ (mailto:jpreisig at aol.com) .
> Hey all,
> Yep, Radsafe has had discussions about quakes, tsunamis, planes
> flying into reactors etc.
> What should we have done earlier????
> Many of Japan's reactors are right along the ocean coastline.
> With knowledge of the quakes,
> tsunamis. etc. there, perhaps building a 20 to 40 foot tall sea wall along
> the coast (near each reactor)
> should be done. Large magnitude 8.0 or so earthquakes appear to occur in
> Japan about every 25
> years or so. I could do a PhD on Japan quakes, tsunamis, etc. and still
> come up with a similar
> number. The earthquake associated with Fukushima was in the vicinity of
> magnitude 9.0, which
> probably doesn't happen once in 100 years. Compare this with a reactor
> lifetime of 40 to 60
> years... I expect the rest of Japan's reactors should remain in service
> until the end of their lifetime.
> Magnitude 9.0 events are not all that common... Chile and Alaska in
> the 1960's,
> a recent Chilean event, the 2 to 3 earthquakes in Indonesia occuring around
> 2000 - 2010,
> the recent Fukushima-associated earthquake....
> A gentleman with a pretty profound knowledge of Japanese
> earthquakes and earthquakes
> in general is Dr. Hiroo Kanamori of Caltech (California USA). I don't
> know if Dr. Kanamori still
> gives public seminars/lectures, but maybe some southern California HP
> chapter could invite him to
> one of their meetings to give a talk.
> Fukushima reactor engineering was pretty darned good, considering
> the hazard involved.
> Most US nuclear plants have NO tsunami risk. Is San Onofre the
> Right now, for the next 6 weeks or so is earthquake season (global),
> and the main question is
> where??? Location, location, location....!!!!! So, if you notice your
> cats, dogs, horses,
> cows, pigs, etc. acting strangely, maybe there is a reason. Previously,
> there have been reports of
> strange animal behavior in China prior to very large earthquakes.
> Bolt's book on Earthquakes is pretty good for a public audience,
> with Stacey for general
> geophysics and Aki and Richards for Graduate level Seismology (complete
> with earthquake
> source terms and Green's functions). Peruse the last book at your own
> Be good.
> Regards, Joseph R. (Joe) Preisig, PhD
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